Blue wave? Meh. It’s the Brazil election that matters at COP.

ANTALYA, Turkey — Forget the U.S. midterms. Another election has dominated the attention of diplomats at the global climate talks in Turkey. Newly reelected Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva got a hero’s reception wherever he appeared at the U.N. conference in Antalya on Wednesday. Delegates broke out into spontaneous applause and chants of “Olé, olé, olé, olé, Lula, Lula!” when the 81-year-old socialist walked into a forest protection event with his entourage.

Ed Miliband, the U.K.’s foreign secretary, called it “President Lula’s COP victory party.” Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre hailed Lula’s “tremendous leadership.” One European diplomat went even more stellar with their praise of the Brazilian. “He’s a bit like Yoda,” they observed. Amazon avenger Such effusive admiration from the world’s climate faithful shows just how much Lula’s surprise victory last month over far-right challenger Flavio Bolsonaro mattered to the COP cause.

Under Lula, deforestation in the Amazon — a key driver of climate change — has reached its lowest levels in 40 years. Climate campaigners feared that Bolsonaro, like his father before him, would have unpicked environmental protections. And that is why, for many climate diplomats in Turkey, it was the Brazil election — not the U.S. midterms — that will prove to be the one that really mattered for climate. “The Brazil election makes a huge difference in terms of the mood here,” said a second European diplomat.

“As for the U.S. midterms, we’ll have to see.” Lula’s victory “really helped” on a practical level, said a third European diplomat. Brazil hosted last year’s COP and delegates are hopeful continuity in the Lula administration could help consolidate gains. Lifting the gloom Lula himself, in his address to the COP Leaders’ Summit, taking place Wednesday and Thursday this week, characterized his victory as a triumph over “those who deny the evidence of science, who threaten the survival of the biggest tropical forest.”

Brazilians have “showed that the fight against climate change goes beyond diplomatic halls. It is waged by the vote of each woman, of each man who wishes to make a difference,” he said. That glosses over Lula’s mixed environmental record — he’s also pursuing an expansion of oil exploration in the Amazon. But it is rhetoric perfectly pitched to put fire in the belly of climate diplomats, who have faced bleak prospects after repeated setbacks to the green cause in recent years.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva celebrates after the results of the general election on Oct. 25, 2026 in Sao Paulo. | Rodrigo Paiva/Getty Images The U.S. — the world’s biggest economy and second biggest emitter — is withdrawing from the U.N. climate process under President Donald Trump. Stubborn global emissions refuse to fall. The most ambitious goal in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C, is now certain to be missed.

All the while, the effects of climate change are making themselves ever more evident. Record heat and wildfires scorched Europe this summer, and deadly, climate-linked floods hit Nepal and China this August. Lula’s victory could “brighten up a bit [the] gloomy atmosphere when we come together here at COP,” Norway’s Støre said. Awaiting the Americans As for the U.S. Democrats, they are not yet at COP in force — but even when they arrive, observers don’t expect a significant impact on the talks.

Victorious candidates in the midterms were notably silent on climate, instead focusing their arguments on affordability and corruption. For Democratic climate champions due at COP, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, there will be plenty of curious questions — but maybe not outbreaks of chanting. “Everybody is interested to see what [the U.S. midterms result] means,” said the third European diplomat cited above.

“But it shouldn’t have an impact here.” Sara Schonhardt provided additional reporting.