Labour races ahead of Reform and Tories with eight-point lead

Labour has raced further ahead of Reform UK and the Conservatives, creating an eight-point gap in the polls in November. City AM /Freshwater Strategy polling has shown that 30 per cent of voters backed Labour, compared to 22 per cent for Reform UK and the Conservatives. The wider distance between Labour and its two main political opponents appears to put Andy Burnham in a stronger position amid intensifying speculation around an early election being called.

The Prime Minister has ruled out calling a snap vote within the next year although he told ITV News he would “seek a mandate” to deliver on his upcoming 10-year plan. “I came into the job genuinely feeling that the country needs a really clear change in terms of the way politics has been done because we’re in a messy position. “If we’re constantly going into new elections and the cycle of elections is then further frustrating the process of change, then I just wouldn’t be doing my job,” Burnham said.

Labour’s Burnham gets popularity boost Polling showed no change in support for the Liberal Democrats, with Sir Ed Davey’s party still level with the Greens at 10 per cent. Burnham could also be pushed to call an election to shore up his mandate on issues such as the EU, reforms on the triple lock pension and greater public control. The latest polling reveals that a majority of voters want an election to take place by the end of 2028, with 22 per cent hoping it would happen next spring.

However, just two in five voters expect an election by the end of 2028, with ballots expected to come in 2029 according to 28 per cent of respondents. The Prime Minister and the Conservative Party’s Kemi Badenoch are likely to be wary about senior figures’ popularity ratings and whether their own high levels of approval can boost party-wide support. Burnham’s net approval rating jumped to 16 points while Badenoch’s stood at five, also improving on the month.

By contrast, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s approval rating remains in negative territory at -21. He is in the red along with other senior Labour figures such as Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting. Method note: Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,219 eligible voters in the UK, aged 18+ online, between 30 October – 1 November 2026. Margin of Error +/- 2.8%. Data are weighted to be representative of UK voters. Freshwater Strategy are members of the British Polling Council and abide by their rules.