The New York Times, on Climate, 1 November 2026

6.0out of 10Serious

Flooding in Parts of Arizona and Colorado Prompts Evacuation Orders

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, prompting evacuation orders in some parts and bringing threats of flash flooding through Monday, forecasters said. The greatest threat was expected across parts of Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado and western New Mexico, where much of the region was still recovering from devastating floods from just over a week ago . The Weather Prediction Center said further heavy rainfall on already saturated ground could quickly run off, increasing the risk of renewed flash flooding, especially on steep terrain, slot canyons, washes and burn-scar areas.

The city of Sedona, Ariz., issued evacuation orders for some areas on Sunday. “Do not cross when there is running water on the road,” the city said in a social media post. Chief Ed Mezulis of the Sedona Fire District said on Sunday that his department and the city’s Police Department were working to evacuate multiple people because of rising water. “Please stay at high ground,” he urged residents. Rivers are also expected to be overwhelmed.

In southwestern Colorado, the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs . A rare “particularly dangerous situation” warning was issued for Pagosa Springs, as the river was forecast to crest at 19.38 feet on Sunday night into Monday morning, more than four feet higher than last month’s peak of 15.02 feet, and above the recorded high of 17.8 feet, set in 1911. A mandatory evacuation order was issued on Saturday night for residents, businesses and visitors in Pagosa Springs, especially along the San Juan River corridor and in low-lying areas of the town.

The Colorado Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management announced an evacuation order for parts of Conejos County on Sunday because of expected flooding. “Be prepared to be away from your home for multiple days,” the agency said. Officials urged anyone in the affected area to leave immediately and move to higher ground, warning that floodwaters could rise rapidly. The storm is also expected to bring heavy rain and the risk of flash floods across parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Weather Prediction Center said three to five inches of rain was expected across parts of Arizona’s Mogollon Rim, particularly north and east of Phoenix. In southern Utah and western New Mexico, up to three inches was possible. The storm is expected to move east toward the Great Plains on Monday, with conditions gradually improving across parts of the Southwest thereafter.

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What we found (1)

The New York Times reports evacuation orders in Arizona and Colorado and a river forecast to beat a level set in 1911, and it sources its warnings carefully to forecasters and officials. It never says that a warming climate makes heavy rainfall like this more frequent and more severe. A reader comes away treating a forecast record flood, after devastating floods a week earlier, as weather and nothing more.

  1. Leaves out the climate link

    Serious

    “is forecast to reach a level not seen in more than a century”

    Why this matters
    The words "a level not seen in more than a century" present a record flood forecast as a rare event. The article gives no word on why such extremes are happening.
    The impression it gives
    A reader believes this record river level is chance weather, a once in a century freak with no wider cause.
    The context
    Human-caused warming has made heavy rainfall more frequent and more intense. The article never uses the word climate or warming anywhere, even though it reports a record crest following devastating floods just over a week earlier.

    How we know

    • On the recordThat warming has made hot extremes, heavy rainfall, agricultural and ecological drought, fire weather and intense tropical cyclones more frequent or more severe.ipcc.ch (opens in a new tab)
    • Checked against the whole articleIt never uses the words “climate” and “warming”.
    • Elsewhere in the article“above the recorded high of 17.8 feet, set in 1911”

    Show it in the article

    “A potent storm system unleashed heavy rain over the Southwest”

    Why this matters
    The opening line "A potent storm system unleashed heavy rain" names only the storm as the cause of the flooding. It sets up a story about weather alone.
    The impression it gives
    A reader believes the repeated heavy rain over a normally arid region is down to one storm system and nothing else.
    The context
    The region was still recovering from devastating floods just over a week earlier, and warming loads the dice for heavy rainfall like this. The article never says so.

    How we know

    • On the recordThat warming has made hot extremes, heavy rainfall, agricultural and ecological drought, fire weather and intense tropical cyclones more frequent or more severe.ipcc.ch (opens in a new tab)
    • Elsewhere in the article“still recovering from devastating floods from just over a week ago”

    Show it in the article

    Written straight

    Add one line such as: "Climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, is making heavy rainfall and flooding like this more frequent and more severe."

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