Trump plans to resume strikes on Iran day after midterm elections

President Donald Trump is planning to resume strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, with his domestic political power set to wane during his final two years in office, and his attention expected to shift to foreign policy. The Trump administration has briefed Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense round of strikes as soon as Nov. 4, the day after the midterms, according to three senior Gulf Arab officials, granted anonymity to share sensitive discussions.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier on the Trump administration’s briefings to Gulf Arab countries. Washington’s Gulf allies are pushing hard to de-escalate, worried about how Iran will retaliate. One Gulf official said they “would not be surprised” if some Gulf states pushed back on U.S. carrying out strikes from bases in their countries. The U.S. has not struck Iran since Sept. 1, more than six months into the war Washington launched with Israel that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Trump has pledged no new attacks before the midterms, while Iran has continued to threaten shipping traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is blockading Iranian ports to pressure Tehran. “We do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist. President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” said a White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly.

Trump said Friday that the war with Iran “is going to be over very soon.” “We’re knocking the hell out of them,” Trump said in an interview with Kansas City radio station KCMO. Trump predicted that “we're going to have a non-nuclear Iran. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they won't have a nuclear weapon, and that's going to end very soon.” But Trump’s path to further increase military pressure on Iran is complicated by a Republican base increasingly split over Iran and America’s role in the world.

“It's a tough situation because of the base,” said a former Trump administration official in regular touch with Trump’s inner circle, granted anonymity to speak candidly about Trump’s deliberations. “I would say that what President Trump is focused on is the threat from Iran, not just the nuclear threat, but terrorism.” In addition to trying to destroy Iran’s nuclear program — much of which is lodged deep underground — Trump has said he wants Iran to stop supporting proxy militant groups and using terrorism to project power in the region.

Around two-thirds of Americans, 65% disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling U.S. military action in Iran, with Republican and Republican-leaning independents growing more negative about the conflict, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. Trump has long been fixated on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and some around him expect that once the midterms are behind him, he will focus more on his foreign policy legacy. “He's obsessed with Iran not getting a nuclear weapon,” said another former Trump administration official who is familiar with Trump administration foreign policy deliberations.

“He's been convinced that with this final attack we can get a deal with the Iranians, or we can finally destroy their nuclear program.” In an interview Sunday with Fox News, Trump said Iran’s Pickaxe mountain, a deeply buried site connected with Iran’s nuclear program, could be a potential U.S. target. “We can read the badge on somebody’s shirt from space, okay? We know exactly what’s going on at Pickaxe Mountain. We know the other three [nuclear sites] are obliterated,” Trump said.

Speaking last week on the campaign trail in Florida, Trump said if Iran doesn’t agree to make concessions on its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to launch more attacks. “We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said, using the name the Pentagon gave to the bombing campaign the U.S. launched with Israel in February. “Or they'll agree. If they're smart, they'll just say, ‘let's get down to business.’” Trump’s team is making one last push at diplomacy as the U.S. builds up its forces in the region.

Vice President JD Vance recently sent a letter to Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, a hardline former Revolutionary Guard commander who became secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in August, pitching a meeting between Iranian and American officials to resume talks, according to two people familiar with the matter, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy. Qatari mediators were back in Tehran on Friday to push for a deal between the U.S. and Iran as the tiny Gulf state has stepped up its diplomatic efforts over the past week.

Qatar has proposed a seven-day plan to address Washington’s and Tehran’s concerns, including confidence-building steps the sides could take, one of the people familiar with the discussions said. Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are involved, the two people said. At the same time, the U.S. is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group, led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and some 9,000 sailors and Marines toward the Middle East, alongside other ships.

U.S. officials have said these forces will arrive at the end of November. The U.S. has also bolstered defenses in the region, moving additional Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Washington has ordered most government employees in Saudi Arabia to leave the country and has reduced staffing at missions in Lebanon, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan after warning last week that Iran has significantly stepped up attempts to attack American personnel stationed in the Middle East.

The State Department also cited concerns about attacks on Saudi Arabia from the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen and possible spillover in the region. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said he recently attended a classified briefing about Trump’s war plans should he restart military operations, which he said could include targeting civilian infrastructure. “Their plan is insane,” he said at a think tank event in Washington earlier this week.

“The plan that they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that will be devastating for our security interests.”