Does Iraq's rerouting of oil exports make Turkey a big winner of the Iran war? - analysis

A new report at Iraq's Shafaq News says that Iraq has increased oil exports to Turkey. The report says the increased exports are going through Turkey's Ceyhan port and that the total amount of barrels has increased from 350,000 to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). This is a 43 percent increase. However, the bigger story is that Turkey has emerged as a potential winner in terms of the crisis the Iran war has created.

This matters since Turkey is not involved in the conflict. However, it can present itself as a stable partner amid the ongoing uncertainty. Turkey has already made use of its position to work with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The oil export increase from Iraq appears mostly symbolic.What does the new report say? “Citing a North Oil Company source, OilPrice said around 200,000 bpd of Basra crude is being transported by tanker trucks from southern Iraq to collection stations at Sarallu and Khurmala, before entering the northern pipeline system bound for Ceyhan.

The remaining shipments come from oil fields in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and Kirkuk,” Shafaq added.

This increase “marks the highest export volume through the route since operations resumed in September 2025, following a suspension of about two and a half years over disputes between Baghdad and Erbil concerning oil export revenues.”Iraq faced with crisis since beginning of Iran warIraq has been faced with a major crisis since the war with Iran began in February. Iraq used to export most of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has left Baghdad scrambling for other routes.

Iraq lacks the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and can not easily pivot. However, it has done what it can amid the storm. It has moved oil via trucks to Syria's Baniyas port. The trucks go via a crossing near Tanf in Syria. This is a lonely desert outpost that was once near a US military garrison in Syria. Now that garrison is abandoned. However, security has prevailed in the area, enabling the exports to flow.Another option for Iraq has been exports to Turkey.

The Kurdistan Region has benefited from this shift because of its historic ties to Turkey and also its infrastructure that enables energy exports to Ceyhan. The data is clear, according to Shafaq and OilPrice. Production “from Iraq's southern oil fields fell by around 70% during the early weeks of the US-Israeli war on Iran, dropping from approximately 4.3 million to 1.3 million bpd as shipping disruptions restricted exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Production had recovered in recent months, with more crude exported through Ceyhan and the Strait of Hormuz.”Crude oil exports rising to pre-war levels for IraqHowever, Iraq's crude oil exports are rising and could return to the levels that they were before the Iran war. In another development, reports at the state-run Iraqi News Agency have noted that Iraq's “Minister of Oil Basim Mohammed Khudair Al-Abadi confirmed on Tuesday that agreements have been reached with the American company Chevron regarding a contract for the West Qurna-2 oil field.”

It added that “in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), the Ministry of Oil announced that Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair Al-Abadi confirmed the conclusion of agreements with Chevron concerning the West Qurna-2 field contract.”

This development is important as Iraq continues to work with Western oil companies, some of which are also investing in Syria. Looking at the broader picture, it would appear that Iraq, Syria, and Turkey are taking advantage of the conflict in Iran to shore up their positions as energy partners for Western companies and the West in general. For instance, Shafaq added that Iraq's Oil Ministry “would support Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and other US companies operating in Iraq by addressing obstacles to their investments.

The government is also seeking to attract American companies to the oil and gas sectors, benefit from their expertise in field development, and expand technology transfer and workforce training.”West Qurna-2 was previously operated by Russia's Lukoil. This could be seen as a net win for the US. It remains to be seen how these deals will turn out. What is clear is that Turkey is positioning itself for what comes next. Iraq, which is looking more to Syria, will naturally be tied to Turkey because Ankara is also a player in Syria and a key partner of Damascus.