What Does the Super El Niño Mean for Ski Season?

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A Super El Niño Is Here. What Does It Mean for Skiing?

The climate event is predicted to alter snowfall patterns across the U.S. and Canada. Experts are starting to see how it might play out across ski country.

Godzilla has arrived. A super El Niño is here.

What sounds like the plot of a horror movie is actually a forecast for a climate event that is predicted to shatter records and reshape global snowfall patterns this winter. An El Niño results from an intricate interplay between ocean and atmosphere: The temperature of the sea’s surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator warms, releases heat and affects the trade winds, which changes global weather patterns. El Niños occur every two to seven years, typically peaking from November to January.

For skiers, this year’s powerful El Niño could mean abundant snow in some regions, while large expanses of North America endure warm temperatures, rain or drought. Many skiers have been anxiously watching the predictions and trying to game out where they should go this winter, especially after a disastrous season in much of the West last year.

Forecasters have recently been issuing long-range projections for where and when the snow is likely to fall during ski season. Here’s what to know.

What is a super El Niño?

When ocean temperatures warm more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) it is designated as a very strong El Niño (words like “super” are popular descriptions, not scientific ones). The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has already declared that this super El Niño is likely to be “a historic event” that will break previous records. Ocean temperatures more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal have already been recorded in the eastern Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 4 degrees Celsius above normal in some places.

Tracking the number of very strong El Niños can be confusing, because the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration recently changed the index it uses to measure their strength, to better account for climate change. Using the new index, it says, there have been six very strong El Niños since 1950.

What areas of the country will this weather pattern affect most?

A super El Niño typically strengthens the southern storm track and weakens the northern one. According to NOAA, heavier precipitation is more likely from California — with snowfall concentrated in the mountains — to the Gulf Coast, while warmer and drier air is expected to dominate the Midwest.

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