Alex Kane: Garvaghy Road became a new generation civil rights campaign and a win for nationalism

T he resignation of Carla Lockhart has reduced the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to four MPs – three of whom are in their 70s and unlikely to contest the next general election, while the other, leader Gavin Robinson , is under enormous internal and external pressure. Four recently held DUP seats are now held by Alliance , Sinn Féin , Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). Former DUP MLA Alex Easton sits as the independent unionist MP for North Down and Lockhart will be the independent unionist for Upper Bann.

All of which means huge problems for the DUP, not least because none of the seats it presently holds or hopes to regain can be slotted into the bankable or probable columns. Lockhart’s resignation didn’t land as a fatal blow. She wasn’t one of the party’s big beasts or troublemakers and she never established – or sought to establish – a support base around herself. But as the DUP’s MP in Upper Bann, home of Drumcree and the Garvaghy Road , she quickly found herself cast in the unlikely role of a Joan of Arc heroine for the Orange Order and what she describes as “the overwhelming majority of ordinary unionists across Northern Ireland”.

Crucially, she became the champion for those unionists – inside and outside the DUP – who believed that First Minister Michelle O’Neill should be removed from office because she had played a key part in both leading and encouraging the nationalist blockade of “a lawful parade by 35 Orangemen”. It was this stance that brought Lockhart into conflict with her party and leader. The only way to remove O’Neill from her role is for the DUP to withdraw the Deputy First Minister, Emma Little-Pengelly ; a move that, under existing rules, automatically triggers the standing down of the First Minister.

Lockhart argues that removing O’Neill wouldn’t bring down the Stormont Assembly because rules added quite recently allow for months of a caretaker system that permits other ministers to remain in office and most other business to continue. But experience suggests that Sinn Féin might react to what would be interpreted as a hostile move against O’Neill by simply withdrawing all of their ministers and MLAs – stopping short of the formal resignation of seats – thereby reducing the place to zombie status and ushering in what might become the final collapse.

This, it should be noted, is an outcome that would be welcomed by a growing element within wings of unionism and loyalism – which is why they have been so supportive of Lockhart. Gavin Robinson and Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Jon Burrows fear that collapse would be bad for unionism and are desperate to avoid it. They are also desperate to avoid anything – such as O’Neill’s forced removal – that would play into Sinn Féin’s hands.

A poll last week had the party at 30 per cent to the DUP’s 18 per cent. But one of two coming decisions could force Robinson’s hand. The Police Service of Northern Ireland could decide to charge O’Neill with unlawful behaviour for her role in blocking the parade and she could refuse to resign. Or it could decide not to charge her, and unionism would be very angry. Either way, Robinson would probably have to respond by withdrawing Little-Pengelly.

Meanwhile, unionist unity pleas can be heard. They always can when unionism is in a mess. The mantra is the first refuge of the unionist party in the greatest trouble – in this case, the DUP. But it will come to nothing. The DUP is too weak to make any demands. The TUV wants nothing to do with “rollover” unionism. The UUP – with high hopes of the breakthrough that has eluded it for more than 20 years – is treading carefully because it doesn’t want to risk winnable seats by bailing out the DUP Robinson is on territory once occupied by David Trimble .

The former certainly has more support from his assembly party than Trimble did, but he may discover that the support will evaporate if there isn’t a speedy resolution to the Michelle O’Neill problem. The assembly election is six months away and DUP MLAs will be easily spooked by the prospect of anti-Sinn Féin rallies, organised by the TUV and elements of loyalism, and accusations that he sacrificed Lockhart to keep O’Neill in office. Lockhart herself could become a very valuable asset to the TUV and others in an election campaign, in which her “principled stand” would be contrasted unfavourably with that of her former leader.

The biggest problem, though, for all forms of political/electoral unionism is that it is now facing a nationalist-republican base more united than at any time since the Belfast Agreement was endorsed in the 1998 referendum. A new-generation civil rights campaign, which is what the Garvaghy Road protests became, may turn out to be electoral catnip for both pre- and post-1998 nationalism. Meanwhile, unionism seems more determined than ever to cannibalise itself.

Which, when you think about it, is an extraordinary consequence of an Orange Order parade that was intended to be a crucial victory in a supposed culture war. Unless, of course, the real victory being sought by some was the toppling of the assembly and the end of power sharing with Sinn Féin.