Israel prepares for possible Iran escalation as US delays military action until after midterms
Israel's defense establishment is maintaining ambiguity regarding preparations for a possible escalation with Iran, as the White House gives the Iranian regime another opportunity to return to negotiations, according to Israeli defense assessments on Friday.Defense officials assess that the Iranians, who are facing an economic crisis that is worsening from week to week, will not sign an agreement requiring them to completely abandon their nuclear program, and certainly will not agree to stop producing ballistic missiles that now also threaten Europe.
Accordingly, the assessment is that Iran is merely attempting to buy time. Iran has reportedly been deliberately prolonging negotiations ahead of the US midterm elections.Meanwhile, Iranian security agencies have succeeded in suppressing the first signs of resistance in the streets and preventing renewed protest movements from organizing.Defense officials further assess that despite preparations by the US military's Central Command (CENTCOM) for a possible strike on Iran, the White House will not order an operation against the Iranian regime before the US midterm elections unless it detects preparations for a surprise attack.
The US and Israel have also reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the midterms.It is worth noting that more than 3,000 American troops are currently stationed in Israel, and no sharp increase was recorded in the number of US military aircraft redirected to the country during the previous week. This contrasts with the unprecedented deployment of US military refueling aircraft that filled the runways at Ben-Gurion Airport and Ramon Airport, alongside a significant presence at Israeli Air Force bases.US pressure over Gaza reconstruction expected after midtermsAgainst this backdrop, Israel's defense establishment assesses that immediately after the US midterm elections, the White House will renew pressure on Jerusalem to advance the establishment of a terrorism-free Palestinian city on the ruins of Rafah, funded by the United Arab Emirates.According to a defense source, there is approval in principle to establish a "bubble" within Palestinian territory that is currently under a high degree of IDF operational control.IDF troops are still operating in the designated area in the southern Gaza Strip, searching for unexploded ordnance, explosive devices, and infrastructure above and below ground.At least according to the original plan, the first phase is intended to accommodate tens of thousands of Palestinians.Senior defense officials oppose any progress toward rebuilding the Gaza Strip without first disarming Hamas and demilitarizing the territory, including transferring governing authority from Hamas to a third party.
Left out here: Leaves out what changes the picture
The article says no sharp increase in US military aircraft heading to Israel was recorded in the past week. It does not say that flight-tracking data showed more than 10 US military transport planes landing at Israeli airbases over that period. Without it, a reader may believe the US build-up has paused.
How we know
- Times of Israel reported“More than 10 US military transport aircraft landed at Israeli airbases in southern Israel over the past week”Top US commander briefs Trump on Iran military options as 10 US military transport planes land in Israel (opens in a new tab)
US officials and representatives of the Board of Peace have been preparing to identify locations for Hamas weapons handovers under the US-backed plan.IDF prepares for Gaza City operation as Hamas rejects disarmamentSenior Southern Command officials told Walla during the week that Hamas has no intention of disarming and has backed away from the proposal to surrender its weapons and place them in storage facilities inside the Gaza Strip.Accordingly, Southern Command officials assess that regardless of which government is formed, the IDF is preparing for a ground maneuver aimed at capturing Gaza City and dismantling the terrorist infrastructure within it.In addition, IDF troops in Hebron are preparing to demolish the homes of the terrorists who carried out the attack in the city the previous week, in which two active-duty soldiers were killed.
The deadly Hebron terrorist attack prompted extensive IDF operations in the area. The home demolitions are expected to take place on Saturday.For this reason, a decision was made not to reduce troop levels until the mission is completed.
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