Labour’s £10bn migrant U-turn WILL hike already soaring welfare bill, admits Mahmood

Tap a highlight to see why it matters.5 findings

3 comments 3 Next SHABANA Mahmood has admitted that her humiliating U-turn over migrant plans will add to the already soaring welfare bill. The Home Secretary was forced to scrap plans on her flagship immigration reforms after a revolt by Labour’s left-wing MPs. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has backed down over migrant plans Source: AFP The Home Secretary has now admitted that the Government’s climbdown will increase the welfare bill Source: Getty Advertisement Ms Mahmood backed down even further for foreign care workers who arrived during the huge migration wave unleashed under Boris Johnson .

The retreat came despite her previously warning care workers and their adult dependants expected to settle by 2030 could cost taxpayers a whopping £10billion over their lifetimes. Sign up for the Politics newsletter Thank you! Email address Please provide a valid email. Your info will be used in accordance with our Privacy Policy You'll now receive top stories, breaking news, and more, straight to your email. Ms Mahmood admitted that the U-turn will have “an impact on the numbers” – but refused to specify how much that cost will be.

Left out here: Leaves out what changes the picture

Officials said the night before publication that Mahmood's £10bn figure was out of date and that the changes would still save a few billion in welfare payments. Without this, a reader believes £10bn is the live cost of the concession.

How we know

Daily Mail reported“Last night officials said the £10billion referred to by Ms Mahmood was out of date, and 'a few billion' in welfare payments would be saved by yesterday's changes.”Mahmood's immigration climbdown is STILL not enough for Labour MPs - as they complain Channel boat arrivals will have to wait too long for settled status (opens in a new tab)

She told the BBC today: “There will be savings in the billions, but of course, allowing people to settle at five years, given the unique contribution of care workers, in particular, obviously that does have an impact on the numbers. Read More in UK News GAG FAIL Celeb accused of ‘inappropriate sexual activity with women’ LOSES bid to hide name HACK CHAOS Hackers hit UK freezers after Europe chaos as spy chief warns Brits to stockpile “But I think it is the right treatment.

It is a fair settlement, and it does recognise the uniqueness of this cohort.” Home Office minister Anna Turley told BBC Breakfast it would be “at least £1bn over the next couple of years in terms of welfare savings”. It comes as Labour is already under huge pressure to cut the welfare bill, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimating it will rise from £353bn this year to £431bn in 2032. Under Ms Mahmood’s original plans last November, care workers caught by the changes would have faced another decade before being allowed to stay permanently.

Advertisement Most read in The Sun AN EXCLUSIVE PAIR Meet Jake Tapper's wife Jennifer Brown and their children MARKLE PROBE Cops probing Thomas Markle 'find explicit content on his digital devices' KNIFE HORROR Third boy, 16, held over 'attempted murder' after 5 stabbed at Halloween party RAPE PROBE Two men arrested over 'rape & attempted rape' of 2 women in UK seaside town But after months of pressure from Angela Rayner and more than 100 Labour MPs, the Government has now agreed to spare much of that existing group.

Hundreds of thousands who came to Britain to plug staffing shortages after the pandemic will now be allowed to settle after just five years rather than the proposed 15 – provided they meet strict conditions. The changes affect thousands of migrants who came to Britain after Boris Johnson’s government relaxed visa rules to tackle post-Covid care shortages. Official estimates suggest around 146,000 care workers and 136,000 dependants could benefit from the concession.

Care workers must have entered the route before May 2025, earned at least £25,000 a year and complied with their visa conditions. Advertisement Around 100,000 others, including dependants, who fail to qualify will be offered another five-year visa to give them a second chance. The concessions also extend to nursing auxiliaries and teaching assistants who arrived before May 2025. And in another softening, the Government has relaxed proposals that could have forced adult dependants to qualify for permanent settlement independently of their partners.

Couples will generally be allowed to settle together, provided they have spent the required time in Britain and meet the relevant conditions. The Home Secretary has also abandoned plans to reward migrants with faster settlement for volunteering. Advertisement But the Home Office insisted the wider crackdown remained intact, with ten years replacing five as the standard wait for permanent settlement. Around 500,000 migrants are expected to face longer waits under the new system, including thousands of chefs, butchers and other workers earning below the thresholds for faster settlement.

High earners making at least £125,141 could settle after three years, while those earning £50,271 and certain public service workers could qualify after five. The Government claims the reforms will save taxpayers billions by delaying access to benefits for migrants who do not meet the requirements. Ms Mahmood told the Commons: “This is a solution that is fair to those who came here legally and play their part, and fair to British citizens already here, who should not be asked to pay a greater burden.

Advertisement “Earned settlement institutes a new paradigm in our migration system, long overdue, meaning that one of our greatest rights that we can offer now depends upon a contribution made and responsibilities met: the right to live in this country forever must now be earned. “It will no longer be automatic.” RECOMMENDED STORIES But despite Ms Mahmood’s earlier £10billion warning, officials have yet to publish a full impact assessment setting out the financial consequences of the revised crackdown.

The changes will be introduced in phases from later this year and throughout 2027, as hundreds of thousands of migrants who arrived during the post-Covid boom approach the point at which they could apply to settle. 3 comments 3

Read the original article on thesun.co.uk

What we found (5)

The Sun hangs a £10bn price tag on the U-turn in its headline. It says Mahmood admitted the U-turn will hike the welfare bill, when her quoted words promise savings in the billions and a minister puts welfare savings at at least £1bn. It repeats the £10bn warning without saying that officials had called the figure out of date, and adds loaded words of its own such as humiliating, whopping and a migration wave unleashed.

Headline goes beyond the article
Serious
“WILL hike already soaring welfare bill, admits Mahmood”
Why this matters
The headline puts a capitalised WILL and the word admits on a claim that the U-turn will raise the welfare bill, presented as Mahmood's own admission.
The impression it gives
Mahmood conceded that her climbdown will push the welfare bill up.
The context
The article's own quotes show Mahmood saying the reforms bring savings in the billions and that the care worker concession has an impact on the numbers, meaning smaller savings. A Home Office minister puts welfare savings at at least £1bn. Nobody in the article says the bill will rise.
How we know
- Elsewhere in the article“There will be savings in the billions”
- Elsewhere in the article“at least £1bn over the next couple of years in terms of welfare savings”
Show it in the article
“admitted that her humiliating U-turn over migrant plans will add to the already soaring welfare bill”
Why this matters
The opening line repeats the headline claim as a paraphrase of what Mahmood admitted, with the words add to the already soaring welfare bill.
The impression it gives
The Home Secretary herself said the concession increases welfare spending.
The context
Her quoted words in the same article say the reforms will produce savings in the billions; the concession reduces how much is saved. The Sun's paraphrase turns reduced savings into added spending.
How we know
- Elsewhere in the article“an impact on the numbers”
- Elsewhere in the article“There will be savings in the billions”
Show it in the article
Written straight
Mahmood admits care worker climbdown will cut the savings from her settlement reforms, though she says they will still save billions.
Uses figures that mislead
Serious
“£10bn migrant U-turn”
Why this matters
The headline names the U-turn the £10bn migrant U-turn, presenting £10bn as the cost of the climbdown.
The impression it gives
The concession will cost taxpayers £10bn.
The context
The body says the £10bn was Mahmood's earlier estimate of the lifetime cost of care workers and dependants settling by 2030, not a costing of this decision. Officials have published no impact assessment, and officials told the Daily Mail the £10bn figure was out of date.
How we know
- Elsewhere in the article“care workers and their adult dependants expected to settle by 2030 could cost taxpayers a whopping £10billion over their lifetimes”
- Elsewhere in the article“officials have yet to publish a full impact assessment”
- Daily Mail reported“Last night officials said the £10billion referred to by Ms Mahmood was out of date”Mahmood's immigration climbdown is STILL not enough for Labour MPs - as they complain Channel boat arrivals will have to wait too long for settled status (opens in a new tab)
Show it in the article
“could cost taxpayers a whopping £10billion over their lifetimes”
Why this matters
The Sun restates the £10bn lifetime figure as the yardstick for the retreat, without saying it has been withdrawn.
The impression it gives
£10bn is the current official estimate of what the concession costs.
The context
Officials said the night before publication that the figure was out of date and that a few billion in welfare payments would be saved by the changes.
How we know
- Daily Mail reported“Last night officials said the £10billion referred to by Ms Mahmood was out of date, and 'a few billion' in welfare payments would be saved by yesterday's changes.”Mahmood's immigration climbdown is STILL not enough for Labour MPs - as they complain Channel boat arrivals will have to wait too long for settled status (opens in a new tab)
Show it in the article
Written straight
Mahmood once warned that care workers settling by 2030 could cost £10bn over their lifetimes; officials now say that figure is out of date and that the changes will still save a few billion in welfare payments.
Leaves out what changes the picture
Serious
What is missing
Officials said the night before publication that Mahmood's £10bn figure was out of date and that the changes would still save a few billion in welfare payments. Without this, a reader believes £10bn is the live cost of the concession.
How we know
- Daily Mail reported“Last night officials said the £10billion referred to by Ms Mahmood was out of date, and 'a few billion' in welfare payments would be saved by yesterday's changes.”Mahmood's immigration climbdown is STILL not enough for Labour MPs - as they complain Channel boat arrivals will have to wait too long for settled status (opens in a new tab)
Show where it belongs
Uses figures that mislead
Minor
“estimating it will rise from £353bn this year to £431bn in 2032”
Why this matters
The Sun sets the OBR's forecast for the entire welfare bill beside the care worker concession.
The impression it gives
The concession is a meaningful driver of an £78bn rise in welfare spending.
The context
The article gives no figure for the concession's share of that rise; the only figures it quotes for the reforms are savings, at least £1bn over two years.
How we know
- Elsewhere in the article“at least £1bn over the next couple of years in terms of welfare savings”
Show it in the article
Uses a loaded word
Minor
“humiliating”
Why this matters
The Sun calls the U-turn humiliating in its own voice.
The impression it gives
It is an established fact that the change humiliated the Home Secretary.
The context
Humiliated was the Tory leader's word in her own column; here The Sun adopts it without attribution.
How we know
- Daily Mail reported“Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said Ms Mahmood had been 'humiliated'”Mahmood's immigration climbdown is STILL not enough for Labour MPs - as they complain Channel boat arrivals will have to wait too long for settled status (opens in a new tab)
Show it in the article
“forced to scrap plans on her flagship immigration reforms”
Why this matters
The words forced to scrap tell the reader the reforms were abandoned.
The impression it gives
Mahmood dropped her flagship reforms.
The context
The article itself reports that the ten year standard wait stands and around 500,000 migrants face longer waits; one group was given a concession.
How we know
- Elsewhere in the article“the Home Office insisted the wider crackdown remained intact”
- Elsewhere in the article“Around 500,000 migrants are expected to face longer waits”
Show it in the article
“huge migration wave unleashed under Boris Johnson”
Why this matters
The Sun describes care workers' arrival as a huge wave that was unleashed, words of flood and release.
The impression it gives
These workers came as an uncontrolled surge.
The context
The article itself says they came on visas to fill post-pandemic staffing shortages after rules were relaxed for that purpose.
How we know
- Elsewhere in the article“came to Britain to plug staffing shortages after the pandemic”
Show it in the article

How other outlets reported it

Daily MailMahmood's immigration climbdown is STILL not enough for Labour MPs - as they complain Channel boat arrivals will have to wait too long for settled status (opens in a new tab)

Spot something we missed? Report this article

More from The Sun

Everything we scored from The Sun

Labour’s £10bn migrant U-turn WILL hike already soaring welfare bill, admits Mahmood

Headline goes beyond the article

Uses figures that mislead

Leaves out what changes the picture

Uses figures that mislead

Uses a loaded word

How other outlets reported it

More from The Sun