El Niño Suppresses Atlantic Hurricane Season Peak, Leaving No Hurricanes Forming This Week

Atlantic hits peak, no hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane season reached its climatological peak this week with no hurricanes forming in the basin, as El Niño suppressed tropical development and the National Hurricane Center said no development was expected for at least the next seven days.

As of Thursday morning, the Atlantic basin remained extremely quiet with no hurricane development expected, while the season had produced five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard—each remaining tropical storms.

ABC News said the Atlantic is likely to set a new record Saturday for the latest date in the satellite era (since 1966) without a hurricane forming, surpassing the previous record of Sept. 11 set by Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013.

The BBC framed the same moment as a new record in the making, saying no hurricanes have formed in the basin despite the peak of the season on average and that there was no sign of development in the near future.

In the eastern Pacific, the BBC reported that El Niño tends to strengthen hurricane activity, with 13 named storms including five hurricanes so far, and it noted that the latest major hurricane Lowell hit Hawaii this week.

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El Niño, dust, and wind shear

NOAA lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said El Niño increased vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, with the strongest signal over the Caribbean, and he pointed to very high shear over the Caribbean, much of the Gulf, and the deep tropical Atlantic. The BBC added that increased wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes, and it said Saharan dust also helped suppress activity by transporting dry air across the Atlantic. Capital Weather quoted the National Hurricane Center’s website that “Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days,” and it tied the quiet to the rapidly intensifying El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.

AccuWeather meteorologist Nicholas Arman said, “A slow-moving front will drift into the southeastern United States,” and he described an offshore setup “similar to how Edouard formed last week” as forecasters monitored one area for potential development. The BBC said El Niño is already on track to be one of the strongest on record, expected to peak in November or December, and it reported NOAA said this El Niño will most likely be 'historic'.

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What happens next, and risks

Forecasters stressed that the threat is not over even with the Atlantic quiet, with ABC News noting that roughly 60% of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin typically occurs after Sept. 10 and that powerful hurricanes can still occur well after the season’s peak.

ABC News cited Hurricane Helene striking in late September and Hurricane Milton in early October 2024, and it also mentioned that last year Hurricane Melissa brought devastating impacts to Jamaica in late October.

NOAA’s outlook described in ABC News said that between October and December there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of all previous El Niño events dating back to 1950, and it said the current event ranks as the second strongest on record for this time of the year behind 1997.

AccuWeather said the next name on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season list is Fay and that the climatological peak occurs on Sept. 10, while it also warned that regardless of tropical development, an increase in flooding downpours and locally gusty winds can be expected with thunderstorms.

In the meantime, the BBC reported that the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons continue through Nov. 30, and it said the Atlantic record is being set for the latest date in the satellite era without an Atlantic hurricane forming.

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