Technology and Science · 10 September, 2026 · 3 min read
Atlantic Hurricane Season Hits Sept. 10 Peak With No Hurricanes Forming in 2026
No hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic this season by the climatological peak. El Niño-driven wind shear has substantially suppressed Atlantic tropical development.
How confident outlets are that a hurricane will not form soon.
12 of 13 outlets skipped it: accuWeather highlights a specific offshore area with a low development chance.
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Newsweek
“It seems extremely unlikely at this point we will have a hurricane by Friday”Read the original ↗
Some treat the lull as near-certain record-breaking, others emphasise peak-period risk windows.
Atlantic peak, no hurricanes
The Atlantic hurricane season reached its climatological peak on Sept. 10 with no hurricanes forming in 2026, while the basin remained “extremely quiet” as of Thursday morning, with no development expected for at least the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Thursday is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but 2026 has yet to produce its first hurricane.”
The season has produced five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard—yet all five remained tropical storms, and the Atlantic’s silence is poised to set a record for the latest date in the satellite era without a hurricane forming, ABC News reported.
The quiet pattern is tied to strong El Niño conditions across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which ABC News said are evident in the “lack of tropical activity in the Atlantic” and the “nonstop storms in the eastern Pacific.”
In a separate account, The News-Press said peak activity is “around this time” and described the peak as “more of a range,” with the next few days considered the “height of tropical activity historically,” citing National Weather Service records and meteorologist Christianne Pearce in Ruskin.T
As of Sept. 10, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) stood at 4.4 units, Capital Weather reported, compared with a normal of 45.91 by this point in the season, underscoring how suppressed the Atlantic has been even as the calendar hits its busiest stretch.
El Niño’s wind-shear grip
NOAA lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said El Niño is driving the Atlantic lull by increasing vertical wind shear, telling ABC News that “El Nino increases vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, with the strongest signal over the Caribbean.”
ABC News also quoted Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies saying the Atlantic quiet resembles years like 1982, 1997 and 2015, while the Pacific activity follows patterns seen in very strong El Niño events like 2015.
In a different framing, Capital Weather quoted tropical weather expert Michael Lowry, writing that El Niño has “brought the hammer down on the Atlantic, punishing wannabe hurricanes with the type of wind shear you’d expect during the winter months.”
The News-Press similarly tied the suppression to El Niño’s effect on storm formation, quoting Pearce that “El Nino makes the environment very unfavorable for the formation of storms and that's basically increased wind shear in the Caribbean and Gulf and the Atlantic.”
While the Atlantic remains quiet, ABC News stressed the threat is not over, citing Hazelton’s warning to stay vigilant because a system could find “a very narrow window to do something,” even after the peak passes.
What happens next
Forecasters in the ABC News account said roughly 60% of tropical activity in the Atlantic typically occurs after Sept. 10, and they pointed to past late-season impacts including Hurricane Helene striking in late September and Hurricane Milton in early October 2024.
“On average, roughly 60% of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin typically occurs after Sept. 10”
ABC News also noted that the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons continue through Nov. 30, while NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for strong El Niño conditions until April or even May of 2027, which could shape the next season’s activity.
In the local coverage from WVLT, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30, and the outlet emphasized that it only takes one storm to turn an otherwise quiet season into “a significant one,” keeping monitoring and preparedness in focus.
AccuWeather’s Jack Wojczynski said meteorologists were watching “just one area for potential development” off the southeastern United States, where a slow-moving front could lead to enhanced thunderstorm coverage and an area of tropical development offshore.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said the “less conducive environment is expected to persist through the remainder of the hurricane season,” while also warning that the setup could still produce hazards from thunderstorms, including “locally gusty winds” and increased flooding downpours.