South Americaupdated 1h ago3 min read
Archive photo · 16 February 2023Lula Beats Flávio Bolsonaro, Raising Hopes To End Deforestation In All Brazilian Biomes By 2030
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Lula re-elected pledges to end deforestation in all biomes by 2030 and attract funding. Election seen as win for Amazon conservation and global climate policy.
Lula’s win, deforestation hopes
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won re-election in a tight race against right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, and the result raised hopes that Brazil can meet a flagship target to end deforestation in all its biomes by 2030. Lula told supporters in his acceptance speech, "we will show the world how climate policy is handled in this country", and he highlighted that during his last four years as leader the country reduced deforestation every year. Brazil’s space agency data showed that forest-clearing in the Amazon fell to its lowest on record after a deforestation action plan constrained illegal cattle ranching from expanding into the world’s largest rainforest.
Carlos Nobre, a veteran Brazilian climate scientist and co-chair of the Science Panel for the Amazon, said Brazil now has a "historic opportunity" to prevent a tipping point where large parts of the Amazon rainforest could turn into savanna. Anders Haug Larsen, advocacy director at the Norway Rainforest Foundation, described the election result as a "relief", saying it makes it more attractive for donors to support rainforest protection in the country.
Donors, funds, and politics
Brazil’s international fundraising push centers on the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which aims to raise public seed capital to invest in financial markets and then pay rainforest countries from the returns on those investments. Brazil pledged $1 billion to the fund, and the fund is expected to play a key role in helping reach its goal to raise $10 billion from governments by the end of this year. On Monday, the Netherlands announced a €500-million contribution to the fund, which will be disbursed over ten years and is still subject to parliamentary approval.
Sigrun Aasland, Norway’s climate minister, told a TFFF event on the sidelines of the UN biodiversity summit in Yerevan that she was hopeful the $10bn goal could be achieved by the end of this year. Euronews said far-right gains in Brazil’s National Congress could dampen Lula’s power, noting that Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party will control 121 out of 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 28 out of 81 seats in the Senate from February 2027.
What is at stake next
Climate activists celebrated Lula’s win while warning the fight is far from over, and Inside Climate News said the victory gives Lula another four years to pursue his pledge to end deforestation by 2030. Inside Climate News reported that between August 2025 and March 2026, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by36 percent from the previous year, but it also said nearly one-fifth of the Amazon has already been deforested. The same report warned that, coupled with climate change, the forest is nearing an irreparable tipping point, and it said tree loss could dry out the region and further accelerate climate change.
Euronews said threats also remain from wildfires, logging and drought, with this year’s strong El Niño expected to bring hotter, drier conditions conducive to fires. Materia Rinnovabile framed the stakes as a balance of power in South America, saying Lula’s victory halts the populist wave that has swept across the continent in recent years and that the environment cannot be protected without international funding.
