South Americaupdated 1h ago2 min read
Brazil Holds Runoff Sunday Between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
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Polls indicate a technical tie between Bolsonaro and Lula ahead of Sunday runoff. The election pits Lula da Silva against Flávio Bolsonaro in a high-stakes runoff.
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Runoff in Brazil
Brazil is heading into a presidential runoff this Sunday between far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with the BBC describing the contest as crucial for Latin America and for the United States. 158 million Brazilians eligible to vote will decide the runoff, and the BBC framed the candidates as a 45-year-old Bolsonaro who surprised everyone by winning the first round and an 80-year-old Lula seeking his fourth term. The difference in valid votes on October 4 was 1.9 percentage points, the smallest on record in a first round since Brazil returned to democracy, and some polls showed a technical tie before Sunday.
Edgar Franco-Vivanco, a political science professor who directs the Latin America Elections Center at the University of Michigan, told the BBC Mundo, "It’s a crucial election for the region." Bolsonaro proposes economic liberalism, tax cuts, and a hard line on security, while Lula plans to expand the role of the state, strengthen social policies, and broaden workers’ rights.
Polls and corruption
A Datafolha poll published on Thursday placed Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a virtually tight race ahead of the second round this Sunday, with Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 46%.
The Datafolha survey reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, and it said 5% of respondents would vote blank while undecided voters accounted for 2%.
A CBN report from RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) said corruption is a top concern for many Brazilian voters ahead of Sunday’s runoff, and it warned experts that the greatest impact may be whether voters decide to sit out of the election altogether.
Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco, told CBN, "We have a great ability to filter information that goes against our beliefs."
The CBN report said more than 33 million people, or 21% of the electorate, did not vote on Oct. 4, and it described that as the highest first-round abstention rate since 1998.
Regional stakes and abstainers
A Bolsonaro victory would allow Donald Trump to extend to nearly all of South America the hemispheric dominance he has sought since returning to the White House last year. The runoff was described as potentially shaping the region’s political course, and experts warned the contest will reverberate beyond Brazil’s borders. The CBN report said the perception of corruption can increase abstention and anti-incumbency sentiment, potentially benefiting Bolsonaro, who received 2.2 million more votes than Lula in the first round.
Laura Chelidonopoulos, who has studied corruption and is a political science PhD candidate at the University of Pittsburgh, told CBN, "People become disenchanted with politics." Bolsonaro is trying to reach the presidency for the first time, a position held before by his father, the ultra Jair Bolsonaro, convicted for attempted coup after losing re-election in 2022 to Lula, who now seeks his fourth term.