South America07 October, 20263 min read
Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula Ahead Of Brazil Runoff, Defends Israel Ties And Americas Shield
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Bolsonaro leads Lula in first round, 47% to 45%, runoff set for Oct 25. Bolsonaro defends closer Israel ties and positions Hezbollah as central campaign issue.
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Bolsonaro vs Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro outpaced Lula in the first round of the October 4 presidential election, with about 47% of the votes to 45%, and the runoff is scheduled for October 25. Flávio Bolsonaro defended closer ties with Israel and the transfer of the Brazilian embassy to Jerusalem, while Lula piled up accusations against Israel since the Gaza war. Flávio Bolsonaro said in June he was willing to join the “Americas Shield,” an alliance launched by Washington against criminal organizations and narcoterrorism, and he denounced links between Brazilian criminal groups and Hezbollah.
Celso Amorim said the Escudo das Américas puts Brazil in a siege, “surrounded based on a false argument that treating organized crime as if it were international terrorism,” and he framed the initiative as an attempt to encircle Brazil. The Guardian described Trump’s strategy in the region as aiming to “restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere,” and it said the US president was hoping to add Brazil to his influence after backing rightwing or far-right candidates across Latin America.
Shield and sanctions
Celso Amorim said the Escudo das Américas is led by President Donald Trump and is an attempt to encircle Brazil using a false argument of fighting organized crime, and he said, “Now yes we suffer threats.” Flávio Bolsonaro told the President of Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella, that he would include Brazil in the group if elected, saying, “I will go with great willingness and honor to also be part of the Escudo das Américas.” The Folha de S.Paulo account said the Escudo das Américas is an alliance of the United States with 14 Latin American countries launched in March, and it said the group supported sanctions imposed on 24 criminal groups operating in the region.
The IsraJ account said the Brazilian Federal Police launched Operation “Hawala” on July 15, 2026, against a network suspected of having laundered nearly $20 million over three years for three major criminal organizations in the country. Emanuele Ottolenghi reported in Diálogo on August 3 that investigators were examining possible connections with Hezbollah and al-Qaeda, while noting that the link to Hezbollah remains to be confirmed.
Hezbollah, crime, and risk
IsraJ said Brazil has not designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, and it reported that Emanuele Ottolenghi argued for national sanctions that would better target its financial circuits. Flávio Bolsonaro proposed classifying certain major Brazilian criminal organizations as terrorists, a measure Lula opposes, and the dispute tied the election to both relations with Israel and the means to combat organized crime. The Guardian said Trump threatened in July 2025 to impose a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil, arguing the case against Bolsonaro was a “witch hunt,” and it said the trial went ahead and Bolsonaro was found guilty and sentenced to 27 years in prison.
“So far, Brazil has not designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.”
IsraJThe Guardian also said Brazil denied visas to two state department officials sent to investigate “electoral integrity,” and it reported that Lula leaned into accusations that the US wanted “to colonise Brazil, take our riches, steal our future and leave us in the dust.” Revolution Permanente argued that “Donroe,” Donald Trump’s approach, intends to make Latin America the backyard of US imperialism, and it called for mobilization that includes the slogan “not a single vote for Flávio Bolsonaro!”