South Americaupdated 12m ago2 min read
Lula And Flavio Bolsonaro Seek Ineligibility As Brazil Runoff Nears
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Lula seeks Bolsonaro disqualification over alleged Meta interference ahead of runoff. Bolsonaro demands expanded disclosure of personal records in response to Lula's challenge.
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The Intercept“The run-off election will determine the future of the largest democracy in Latin America and the fate of the Amazon rainforest.”
“Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff could bring a shift in the country’s trade partnerships, its relationship with the United States, and its position on the global stage.”
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Mutual ineligibility and Meta
Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25, has turned into a high-tension sprint as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro exchange requests for ineligibility and both campaigns move to disqualify the other. Lula, about to turn 81, behaved in a “particularly demeaning and even violent manner” in a debate with Flavio Bolsonaro on the country’s largest television network, O Globo, and he attacked the network while arguing, “falsely, as would be demonstrated later,” that he had agreed with Bolsonaro on informative content for his campaign. Flavio Bolsonaro accused Lula of “abuse of power” for widely and prescriptively disseminating content that lauded and promoted the actions of his government through WhatsApp during the electoral period, which is expressly prohibited.
Lula’s campaign asked the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to disqualify Bolsonaro, alleging “an algorithmic manipulation” in which Meta would be involved, and the TSE gave Meta “a 24-hour window” to show it adopted measures guaranteeing equality of treatment. Meta acknowledged “unintended deactivation” of Lula’s campaign ads but said the issue was “technical incidents” and denied that it meddled in the campaign.
Polls show a technical tie
Polls released ahead of the second round have placed Lula and Bolsonaro in a technical tie, with Datafolha showing both candidates at 50% of valid votes. Datafolha interviewed 2,520 voters between Tuesday and Wednesday and reported that Bolsonaro was most voted in the first round on October 4 with 47.03% of the votes, followed by Lula with 45.16%. Quaest’s poll, cited by Cadena SER, put Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44%, and the same account said the rejection level for Lula fell five points to 47%.
Pedro Doria said, “It’s really a toss of a coin,” and he added that no presidential candidate who came in second after the first round has ever won since 1989. Pedro Doria said, “It’s really a toss of a coin,” and he added that no presidential candidate who came in second after the first round has ever won since 1989.
What is at stake
The election’s stakes extend beyond the ballot, with The Intercept framing the runoff as determining “the fate of the Amazon rainforest” and describing Jair Bolsonaro’s deforestation record as leaving the ecological and climate “linchpin” in danger of becoming a “savanna.” Andrew Fishman told The Intercept that “Brazil — as the biggest economy, the biggest country, the most powerful entity in the hemisphere besides the United States — if Brazil falls, then the rest falls in line,” linking the outcome to U.S. influence across the Western Hemisphere. Fishman argued Meta is looming large over the race and that “There’s all these pieces of circumstantial evidence that suggest that Meta is interfering in this election,” while Meta responded that it “does not suppress content to disadvantage one side.”
The “Ejército de Lula” WhatsApp channel created by deputy André Janones grew from 50,000 subscribers to almost 8 million between the first and second round. The future of Brazilian democracy itself is at stake in the Sunday, October 25 runoff.