CNT/MDA Poll Shows Flavio Bolsonaro Leading Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva In Brazil Run-Off

Polls and a Runoff

A CNT/MDA poll released by Al Jazeera showed right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro taking 46.8 percent of the vote compared with leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 45.9 percent in Brazil’s October 25 run-off election. Bolsonaro won 46 percent of the vote compared with Lula’s 44 percent in a Quaest poll, and Bolsonaro took 47 percent against Lula’s 45 in a Datafolha poll, down from 49 percent a week earlier. Bolsonaro won 56,104,503 votes in the first round on October 4 compared with Lula’s 53,879,538, and Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Jair Bolsonaro has been barred from running for re-election until 2030 after an electoral court ruled he abused his authority to cast doubt on the 2022 presidential election, and he has remained under house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence connected to efforts to overturn the 2022 vote. Lula, the 80-year-old politician seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term, has been holding regular rallies hoping to energise his supporters, as the race remains within a 2 percent margin of error.

Reporting for this sectionAl Jazeera

Wildfires Become a Weapon

Brazilian authorities are investigating whether a recent surge in wildfires in the Amazon rainforest has been set on purpose for political motives ahead of the second round of presidential elections later this month, CBC reported.

Environment Minister João Paulo Capobianco told The Associated Press that "The indications are that there has been a premeditated effort" to start the fires, after he and environmental enforcement officials flew over burned areas.

CBC said the wildfires have particularly hit Amazonas and Para states, and it reported that smoke has disrupted daily life in Manaus, with public school classes cancelled and residents urged to wear face masks.

The geometric pattern of fires in protected forest areas suggested they may have been deliberately set, and it added that it was not clear who might have started the fires or what their motivations may be.

Lula posted a video on X on Saturday saying he had spoken with Amazonas Gov. Roberto Cidade and that the federal government was sending resources to support firefighting efforts.

Reporting for this sectionCBC

What Is at Stake

The wildfires have become a point of contention outside the Amazon, in an election campaign where forest protection and climate change have received little attention. Deforestation in the Amazon soared under former president Bolsonaro, while Lula has brought it back down to the lowest in a decade. Flavio Bolsonaro denied climate change but called himself an environmental defender and in speeches urged modernizing environmental laws, which many environmentalists read as loosening them.

Al Jazeera reported that on Wednesday Brazil’s Congress approved an amendment to give workers two paid days off a week, as opposed to one, describing the move as a major victory on one of Lula’s top social reform promises just days before the vote. The election comes at a pivotal time for Latin America’s largest economy, with Brazilians grappling with concerns over crime and the cost of living and with the country facing an increasingly tense relationship with the United States.

Reporting for this sectionCBCAl Jazeera