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Bernstein lifts HOOD target
Bernstein lifted its price target on Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) to $160 from $130 and kept an "Outperform" rating, arguing that prediction-market revenue is set to surpass Robinhood's crypto trading revenue as soon as the second quarter.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani projected prediction-market revenue would grow at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028 to reach roughly $1.7 billion, with the second quarter of 2026 potentially the first quarter where prediction-market revenue exceeds crypto trading revenue.
The note tied the upgrade to Robinhood's push into prediction markets, perpetual futures and tokenized equities, expecting that mix to rise from about 3% of total revenue in 2025 to roughly 18% in 2027 and about 23% in 2028.
Bernstein also pointed to Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange affiliated with Robinhood, noting it has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since launching in late May and currently accounts for about 16% of Robinhood's total event-contract volume.
Tokenization and infrastructure
Beyond prediction markets, Bernstein highlighted tokenized equities as a long-term opportunity, pointing to Robinhood Chain, described as its Arbitrum-based layer-2 network, as proprietary infrastructure for tokenized real-world assets.
Cointelegraph reported that Bernstein said tokenization is emerging as a foundational layer for capital markets, projecting that the value of onchain real-world assets will grow to between $2 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030 from roughly $35 billion today.
The research also framed Robinhood's competitive position around distribution reach, with Bernstein projecting prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Chain to account for about 3% of total revenue in 2025, rising to 18% in 2027 and 23% in 2028.
Separate coverage in Cryptonews.net said Bernstein forecast prediction markets to become Robinhood's fastest-growing business and also described the firm's view that tokenized equities and prediction markets—not traditional crypto trading—drive the next phase of growth.
Ecosystem momentum and timing
The Bernstein thesis arrived alongside institutional moves to expand tokenized-securities infrastructure, with Alpaca and Broadridge Financial Solutions integrating Broadridge's shareholder governance tools into Alpaca's Instant Tokenization Network.
Cointelegraph said the integration adds capabilities such as proxy voting, investor communications and regulatory disclosures for tokenized securities, aiming to give token holders governance rights comparable to those of traditional shareholders.
Bloomingbit reported that Bernstein expected Robinhood's prediction-market revenue for the quarter to be about $150 million, up about 44% from the first quarter, while crypto trading volume was expected to fall about 38% from the prior quarter.
Bloomingbit also said Bernstein lowered its outlook for Robinhood's crypto business, cutting its 2026 estimate for crypto trading revenue by 49% and reducing its 2026 total revenue forecast by 10% to $5.3 billion, alongside an adjusted EBITDA estimate cut of 19% to $2.8 billion.
