Bernstein Says 2026 FIFA World Cup Could Boost Coinbase Prediction Markets After Kalshi Launch

Bernstein analysts say the 2026 FIFA World Cup, kicking off across North America Thursday, could mark a “watershed moment” for prediction markets and become the sector’s “single largest volume catalyst yet.”

“Editor’s note: the story was corrected to accurately reflect the relationship between Robinhood and Rothera”

Benzinga

They estimate the expanded 48-team tournament will generate more than $3 billion in bets on the event itself and lift overall consumer prediction market volume by $5 billion to $10 billion, with a 104-match schedule landing in June and July.

Benzinga

Coinbase is positioned as one of the biggest winners, with Bernstein saying it surpassed $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue in March after launching prediction markets through a Kalshi partnership.

The same Bernstein research also points to Robinhood as a beneficiary, forecasting roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for 2026 as it uses the event to launch Rothera, its own US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets.

Bernstein further frames the World Cup as a way to transform “what is typically the slowest period for online sports betting” into a major driver of betting and prediction market volumes.

Benzinga reports that Polymarket traders have made Spain the narrow favorite to lift the trophy at roughly 17%, edging France at 16% on a winner market that has already drawn around $2 billion in volume.

The same Benzinga piece says the window could add about 650,000 funded accounts, while Bernstein projects prediction markets reaching a $586 million annualized revenue rate for Robinhood by year-end.

Coin Academy

In a separate account of the same Bernstein thesis, Coin Academy says DraftKings, Robinhood and Coinbase are among the big winners expected from the tournament, with Robinhood’s Rothera launch described as a CFTC-approved exchange platform operated with Susquehanna.

Coin Academy also says Kalshi consolidated dominance up 21% to $17.9 billion and about 57% share, while Polymarket fell 14.8% to $7.1 billion.

Coin Academy adds that Bernstein anticipates a surge in sector volumes, from $240 billion in 2026 to around $1 trillion by 2030, with the World Cup described as the “first global-scale test” of the thesis.

The TradingView source describes a Coinbase-hosted prediction market for a professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 12, 2026, with the contract resolving to “Yes” if Canada wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties).

“About Stats Markets Timelines Related Assets Legal Make your prediction Buy inPayout $100 󰐰 $185 Canada 󰅈 Yes · 54¢No · 47¢ Buy prediction About If Canada wins the Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes”

Coinbase

It states that the market closes and expires when an outcome occurs, otherwise it closes by Jun 26, 2026, 7:00 PM GMT+0, and it lists Canada at 54% and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 21% in its key stats.

TradingView also spells out that “This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA,” while references to “FIFA”, the “FIFA World Cup,” or other associated marks are described as “descriptive only.”

Cointelegraph reports that the CFTC on Wednesday issued draft rules for prediction markets signaling that sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest even though federal law classifies them as “gaming.”

In the same Cointelegraph account, Bernstein’s research ties the World Cup’s scale to prediction markets’ growth, estimating the tournament will attract roughly 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from an estimated 5 billion during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.