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Multiple pressures hit Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell below $60,000, and NYDIG head of research Greg Cipolaro said the weakness was not triggered by a single event but by multiple pressures accumulating simultaneously, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
“Bitcoin's slide has no single cause”
Cipolaro said the AI trade sits near the top of his list because bitcoin is increasingly competing for capital with a sector that has become the market's dominant growth story, with the overlap between AI and crypto investors higher than many assume.
He also pointed to investors preparing for what could be the largest tech IPO cycle in years, naming companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic as widely expected candidates for public listing.
Cipolaro said the market is also weighing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that U.S. authorities seized approximately $1 billion in cryptocurrency assets linked to Iran, alongside renewed discussion of quantum computing risks and Strategy’s sale of 32 bitcoins.
On-chain metrics cited by Cipolaro included Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio dropping to 1.2 and the percentage of circulating supply in profit falling below 50%, while he said the drawdown remained relatively modest by historical standards.
Cipolaro weighs each headwind
In a report last week, Greg Cipolaro argued that “Viewed independently, none of these developments appears sufficient to drive a major correction in bitcoin,” even as he listed AI momentum, high-profile tech IPOs, quantum and security fears, sanctions on Iranian crypto exchanges, and Strategy’s BTC sale as overlapping headwinds.
Cipolaro said large IPOs often prompt institutions to raise cash and reduce existing positions ahead of new offerings, creating a potential headwind for crypto demand.
He described Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that U.S. authorities seized roughly $1 billion of Iranian-linked crypto assets as raising questions about government reach into digital asset markets, with details remaining limited.
Cipolaro said the threat of quantum computing returned after researchers published new work showing that the computational resources required to attack widely used cryptographic systems may be falling faster than previously thought.
He added that Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC, worth $2.5 million at the time, was insignificant from a supply perspective but carried more weight psychologically because Strategy had spent years acting as one of the market's most consistent buyers.
Bottom debate and next moves
Cipolaro’s on-chain analysis offered a mixed answer on whether bitcoin has found a bottom, saying several indicators are approaching levels that have historically coincided with major bottoms.
“After Bitcoin fell below $60,000, the market began questioning the reasons for the decline”
He cited that Bitcoin fell down roughly 53% from its peak of around $126,000 in October, and that the downturn had lasted approximately 242 days since the peak, which he said was shorter than most prior bear markets that typically took close to a year to reach their troughs.
Cipolaro said the time element could mean either institutional adoption has fundamentally changed bitcoin's cycle behavior or that the market has not yet reached the stage of full liquidation.
He also wrote that “The onchain data suggests the market has undergone a meaningful reset,” but that whether the low is already in place “likely depends on whether institutional demand has structurally altered the cycle or merely delayed a deeper reset.”
Separately, KuCoin reported that the market began questioning the reasons for the decline after Bitcoin fell below $60,000, and it said capital shifting from the crypto market to the technology sector could temporarily diminish demand for crypto assets as investors prepare for large-scale tech IPOs.
