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Bitcoin slips, August looms
Bitcoin fell to two-week lows on Friday as U.S. stocks failed to replicate an Asian rebound, with TradingView data showing the BTCUSD pair falling 3.5% to reach USD 62,369 on Bitstamp, a level not seen since July 14.
“BTCUSD pair falling 3.5% to reach USD 62,369 on Bitstamp”
The same TradingView/ Cointelegraph coverage tied the move to month-end pressure, noting that U.S. stocks turned negative at the open before stabilizing while Asia’s relief rally lifted the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) by 17.9%.
CoinGlass data cited by TradingView showed Bitcoin approached month-end with an 8.5% gain, marking its best July performance since 2022, even as analysts warned that Bitcoin’s bearish August history may continue to repeat itself.
DiarioBitcoin framed the calendar risk more bluntly, saying Bitcoin finished July with an approximate 9.93% gain and briefly rose above USD 65,000 before August arrived with historical losses.
In the same DiarioBitcoin account, August’s worst-month framing was anchored to prior drawdowns of 17.55% in 2014, 9.27% in 2018, and 13.88% in 2022.
Analysts weigh Fed, ETFs
CoinDesk said Bitcoin ended July on a firmer footing, slipping below $63,000 on Friday down about 3% for the day, yet still tracking to finish the month up around 7.5% despite headwinds including rising rate-hike expectations and higher bond yields.
Bitfinex analysts, as quoted by CoinDesk, attributed the relative resilience to positioning after derivatives traders were largely wiped out in the selloff that sent BTC below $58,000 on July 1, with average daily liquidations remaining well below the typical $400 million-$500 million range.
CoinDesk also highlighted the market’s digestion of a Coldcard exploit, saying it led to the theft of at least $38 million worth of bitcoins and that “The positions have not yet been liquidated, but the domino effect of this incident” could weigh on Bitcoin’s price in the short term.
DiarioBitcoin pointed to U.S. regulatory uncertainty as another constraint, saying the CLARITY Act was stalled in the Senate and that John Thune confirmed there will be no vote before the congressional recess beginning on 7 August.
In iProUP’s framing, Senate Majority Leader John Thune similarly confirmed there will be no vote before the congressional recess that begins on August 7, while prediction markets priced in less than a 37% chance the law will pass in 2026.
What to watch next
Looking ahead, CoinDesk said investors await U.S. jobs data and a clearer Federal Reserve path to see if spot bitcoin ETF inflows will resume, with Bitfinex analysts arguing the key question is whether the institutional bid returns.
“a volatile August with bitcoin range-bound unless real yields fall”
CoinDesk quoted Bitget Wallet’s Lacie Zhang saying the baseline scenario is “a volatile August with Bitcoin trading sideways unless real yields fall or ETF inflows become consistently positive.”
TradingView’s account of technical levels emphasized that Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at USD 65,820 continued to act as resistance after two failed breakout attempts since mid-June.
iProUP added that the technical resistance zone between $65,000 and $65,500 is the level the market needs to surpass to validate a trend reversal, while immediate supports were listed at $63,200 and $61,000.
DiarioBitcoin tied the near-term pressure to a restrictive macroeconomic environment and technical resistance, noting that the Friday candle closed with a 1.43% drop that took the price toward USD 63,773, below the July impulse peak.
