Crypto07 October, 20262 min read
Bitcoin Recovery Stalls Below $84,000 As 2025 Buyers Stay Underwater Near $88,000
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Only the 2025 underwater cohort remains, with an average cost near $88,000. Resistance near $88,000 and support near $82,300, guided by ETF cost bases around $82,300.
5 outlets told this the same way.
Underwater cohort, key levels
Bitcoin’s recovery stalled just short of rescuing its last underwater cohort, with only the 2025 yearly buyer cohort still underwater at an average cost basis of approximately $88,000. Bitcoin reached a monthly high of $87,500 in September before trading sideways and subsequently retreating below $84,000 as of Wednesday.
Bitcoin’s yearly volume-weighted cost bases have acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle, and the 2026 cohort’s average cost basis is approximately $73,500. The U.S. spot bitcoin ETF cost basis, which measures the average cost of deposits into the funds, currently stands at approximately $82,300 and is described as a potential support level if the pullback continues.
Resistance near $88,000
The 2025 cohort’s average cost basis of approximately $88,000 is described as a key resistance level due to sell pressure from relatively recent buyers. Bitcoin’s approach to a cohort’s average purchase price is framed as a moment when some investors may look to exit at breakeven while others may add to their positions.
Bitcoin climbed to approximately $82,100 in May, matching the 2024 cohort’s average cost basis, before encountering resistance and falling back to $60,000. The 2023 cohort’s cost basis is currently around $65,000 and is described as a recurring support level when bitcoin fell towards $60,000 in February.
Holders, profit, and risk
TradingView said Bitcoin’s large holders are back in profit, while small wallets never really left, with the June 2026 low landing somewhere between $58,500 and $70,000 depending on the measure used. TradingView reported that at that point roughly 51.4% to 55% of the circulating supply was still in profit, and it said around 10.2 million BTC were underwater before prices recovered.
TradingView added that Bitcoin did not close below its realized price during the 2026 drawdown, a first in the tracked history of its bear markets. TradingView said in September single-day profit realizations hit approximately 25,700 BTC, and it framed that sharp acceleration in profit-taking as a potential signal of caution ahead.