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Second straw poll narrows
The UN Security Council held a second non-binding straw poll on Friday in the race to select the next UN secretary-general, with Guyana’s Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett emerging as the frontrunner ahead of seven other declared candidates.
“the council’s president for August”
Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen of Denmark, the council’s president for August, confirmed that the vote had concluded, and the results circulated after the poll showed Rodrigues Birkett receiving eight “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and four members offering no opinion.
The same results put Costa Rican diplomat Rebeca Grynspan and International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi of Argentina close behind, with each collecting seven “encourage” votes, while Grossi received six “discourage” votes compared with Grynspan’s four.
The process is designed to gauge support among the council’s 15 members and gradually narrow the field before a formal recommendation goes to the UNGA, and a candidate needs at least nine votes in a formal UNSC vote to advance.
The next secretary-general will face the challenge of maintaining the standing of the UN, which the Al Jazeera report says has been reduced in recent years, with critics pointing to conflicts including Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Encourage vs discourage
In the second straw poll, PassBlue’s results as cited by Global Dispatches showed Rodrigues Birkett as the front-runner with just three “discourage” votes, while María Fernanda Espinosa and Rebeca Grynspan followed with three and four “discourage” votes respectively.
Global Dispatches also framed the “discourage” count as the key metric because it can indicate whether a vote came from one of the five veto-wielding permanent members, any of which would sink a candidate’s chances.
Reuters’ explainer said the 10th UN secretary-general will be chosen this year for a five-year term starting on January 1, 2027, and that a second informal poll took place on Friday showing Rodrigues Birkett narrowly ahead, according to sources close to the process.
Reuters further described how the Security Council’s backing is crucial for the top job, noting that Russia has expressed reservations about Rafael Grossi’s campaign.
The same Reuters explainer quoted Grynspan saying, “I am not waiting for special treatment. I want equal treatment,” as it described her approach to leading a more agile UN through collaboration while defending its core values.
Vetoes and funding pressures
Beyond the straw polls, the selection hinges on whether a candidate can secure at least nine votes in the 15-member Security Council and avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members, which the Anadolu Ajansı report lists as the US, China, France, Russia and the UK.
“any of the five permanent members – the US, China, France, Russia, and the UK”
Anadolu Ajansı said the eventual nominee must be appointed by the General Assembly, with that step generally considered a formality once the Security Council has reached agreement, and it reported that Guterres’ term is set to end on Dec. 31.
Time Magazine described the job’s uphill struggle as the UN’s fortunes at a historically low ebb, citing both political and financial reasons, including that the Trump Administration cut off the bulk of U.S. funding for its operations in 2025.
Time Magazine reported that the U.S. is supposed to cover about a fifth of the organization’s core costs and a quarter of the budget for its blue helmet peace operations, which add up to roughly $8.5 billion this year, and that Washington currently owes the U.N. about $4 billion.
In the midst of this, Arab News reported Ivonne A-Baki’s view that “The problem with the UN is that there is no trust,” and she argued that the secretary-general should be “a mediator, period,” as the UN faces unpaid dues, institutional sprawl, wars it has struggled to influence, and a Security Council repeatedly immobilized by geopolitical rivalry and the veto.