CFTC Investigates Adam Kinzinger’s Kalshi Trades Tied to Joe Biden Pardon

CFTC probes Kinzinger bets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating former Rep. Adam Kinzinger for trading on the prediction platform Kalshi about a pardon he received from former President Joe Biden, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.

Biden pardoned Kinzinger last year during the final hours of his presidency, and the preemptive pardons were needed, Biden argued, to protect the lawmakers from possible retaliation by the incoming Trump administration.

Kinzinger traded less than $1,000 on two pardon-related Kalshi markets in late 2024 and early 2025, and sources said he betted that he would get a pardon from Biden.

Kinzinger acknowledged making the trades in an interview with CNN, and he said he was a private citizen at the time of the trades, out of Congress and not running for office.

Kinzinger told CNN he wagered a total of $669 and netted $823, and he said, "It was a dumb bet, to bet on myself."

Reporting for this sectionCNN

Rules, timing, and denials

Kalshi’s rules prohibit participants from trading on contracts where they have influence over the outcome, and the CFTC appears to be wrestling with whether Kinzinger had influence that should have disqualified him from trading on the contract. Kinzinger said he reviewed Kalshi’s rules beforehand and that he believed his actions did not violate the rules, and he told CNN he had no advance knowledge of the pardons. Kinzinger denied insider trading by saying, "At no point, ever, had I had a conversation with anybody in the know about pardons (or) whether I’d get pardoned," and he added, "Certainly, nobody in the White House or anybody that would know anything."

Kalshi uncovered Kinzinger’s trades during a broader look into "suspicious" activity and flagged them to the CFTC, another person familiar with the matter said. The Hill reported that a Kalshi source described the company’s review as "very routine," and the same report said Kalshi attempted to contact Kinzinger multiple times over phone and email.

Reporting for this sectionCNNThe Hill

Regulation pressure and stakes

CNN said prediction platforms have exploded in popularity this year and now see billions of dollars in weekly trading volume, while calls for more regulation have grown alongside that expansion. CNN reported that Kalshi fined several political candidates for betting on their own campaigns, violating the company’s insider-trading rules, and it said the CFTC recently settled a case with the former Trump White House teleprompter operator for "unlawful" bets on Kalshi. CNN also said a bipartisan coalition of 44 states urged the CFTC to rein in prediction platforms, and it said dozens of lawmakers on Capitol Hill were backing legislation that would stiffen penalties against insider trading.

Kinzinger wrote in a November 2025 Substack post that Kalshi and other prediction sites are a "corruption time bomb" and a "threat to democracy" because politicians can profit from insider knowledge. The Hill reported that Kalshi declined to comment because the investigation is ongoing, and it said the CFTC did not respond immediately to The Hill’s request for comment.

Reporting for this sectionCNNThe Hill