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Archive photo · 11 August 2024Democrats Lead in Michigan and Texas as Maine and Kansas Senate Races Stay Tight
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Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by 7 points in poll. CNN polls show Democrats positioned in Texas and Michigan, with Maine and Kansas unresolved.
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7 outlets told this the same way.
Four states, Senate math
CNN polling across four Senate battlegrounds found Democrats well positioned in Michigan and Texas, while Maine and Kansas showed no clear leader in the final days of the midterm campaign. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, and Fox News said the party needs to flip four Senate seats from red to blue to gain a 51-seat majority. In Michigan, CNN polling showed Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 49% among likely voters and Republican Mike Rogers at 42%.
“Democrats need a net gain of four seats; three of these four seats are currently held by Republicans.”
In Texas, CNN polling showed Democrat James Talarico at 49% among likely voters and Republican Ken Paxton at 43%. In Maine and Kansas, CNN polling showed no clear leader, with Collins at 45% and Troy Jackson at 49% in Maine, and Adam Hamilton at 49% and Roger Marshall at 45% in Kansas.
Trump ratings and candidate gaps
CNN polling tied Democrats’ momentum to President Donald Trump’s ratings being underwater, and the poll described the races as a referendum on Susan Collins in Maine.
Fox News said Collins was one of seven Republicans to vote in favor of President Donald Trump's second impeachment in 2021, and it said Collins joined Sen. Lisa Murkowski as the only Republicans to vote against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's Senate confirmation in 2025.
In Michigan, CNN polling said El-Sayed consolidates Democrats as views of Rogers worsen, and it reported that 50% of likely voters now have an unfavorable view of the former Congressman.
In Texas, Fox News said 64% of likely voters of color support Talarico, including 22% of the cohort that voted for Trump in 2024.
In Kansas, CNN polling said voters view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices are about Marshall more so than Hamilton.
What could decide it
CNN polling said that in all but Maine, at least 1 in 8 likely voters say they could still change their mind about whom to support, while more than 9 in 10 Maine likely voters say they are locked into their choice.
Fox News said at least 12.5% of voters in Maine could still change their minds, and it reported that respondents tied Collins to her party less than any other Republican running for Senate in the nation.
USA Today reported that Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats in the Nov. 3 election to take over the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 seat advantage.
USA Today said each of the polls was conducted over the past week starting on Oct. 20, and it said the margins of error ranged from plus or minus 4.2 to 4.7 percentage points.
The Hill said the CNN polls in Texas and Michigan took place from Oct. 20-27, with 768 Michigan registered voters and 923 Texas registered voters included in the polling.