Technology and Science · updated 1h ago · 3 min read
Federal Forecasters Say El Niño Will Strengthen Through 2026, With Historic Strength Likely
Forecasters expect El Niño to strengthen through 2026, with high odds of a strong event. More than 90% chance it becomes very strong in fall and winter.
Whether Kelvin waves or snowpack loss drives the key impacts.
2 of 3 outlets skipped it: kelvin waves are slow, not tsunami-like, and move around 6 mph.
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The Weather Channel
“This wave should reach California by October, where it could raise sea levels by about a foot.”Read the original ↗
FOX 13 Seattle
“precipitation will fall mainly as rainfall in the higher elevations rather than snow.”Read the original ↗
The Weather Channel and KTLA emphasise Kelvin-wave coastal flooding risks, while FOX 13 Seattle emphasises snowpack loss and inland runoff impacts.
Super El Niño Timeline
Federal forecasters said El Niño is expected to strengthen through the end of 2026, with a greater than 90 percent chance it will become a very strong event during fall and winter.
“a greater than 90 percent chance it will become a very strong event during fall and winter”
Newsweek reported that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said there is now a 75 percent chance El Niño will reach historic strength during the October-to-December period, surpassing previous events in records dating to 1950.
In a separate update, the CBS News segment said NOAA also put the odds of a very strong El Niño event this winter at higher than 90% and a 75% chance it will be historic, exceeding the strength of all previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
CBS News added that the average sea surface temperature in the central Pacific is expected to average over 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (2.5 degrees Celsius) above normal for three months, and that August’s average was a little over 3 degrees.
The Weather Company’s 2026-2027 winter forecast, as described by El Comercio Perú, said southern states could have opportunities for snow or ice, while the southern Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada appear as some of the major areas favored by winter precipitation.
Kelvin Waves and California
Multiple outlets tied the El Niño setup to coastally trapped Kelvin waves that can elevate sea levels and intensify coastal impacts for Southern California.
KFI AM 640 said a Kelvin wave linked to El Niño is expected to reach Southern California by early October and elevate sea levels by 6 to 12 inches.
KTLA reported that Kelvin waves are about 6 to 18 inches tall and that if multiple Kelvin waves arrive before the effects of the first fully diminish, the next wave could stack on top of the prior impact.
In the Los Angeles Times, Laguna Beach City Manager Dave Kiff said, "I think Laguna’s was among the greatest, or most significant, but everybody talked about concern about sand and sand replenishment."
The Weather Channel said the wave should reach California by October, where it could raise sea levels by about a foot, and described it as a slow-moving wave moving north at about 6 miles an hour.T
Ecosystems and What’s at Risk
Scripps Institution of Oceanography researchers said El Niño is declared when monthly sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are measured above normal for at least five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
“El Niño often reduces coastal upwelling in the eastern Pacific”
Maven's Notebook quoted Mark Ohman saying El Niño often reduces coastal upwelling in the eastern Pacific, which is an important source of nutrients for the plankton at the base of the food web.
The same Scripps explainer said warmer waters off the coast of North America can allow an influx of subtropical and tropical species of plankton and fish, and it described how zooplankton species can shift during El Niño.
Ed Parnell warned that El Niño is devastating for giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests in Southern and Baja California, with storm tracks changing during El Niños and exposing forests to more damaging winter swells.
In the insurance-focused coverage, University of California climate scientist Daniel Swain said, "Unfortunately this is just a preview," and added that coastal flooding "will get worse this fall and especially this winter."