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Hormuz, Houthis, and pressure
Iran said on Sunday that a deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was in its "final stages" but that the waterway would only reopen once the United States met other conditions.
“Iran said on Sunday that a deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was in its "final stages"”
The same day, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed they attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery with a drone, and the Saudi energy ministry said a fire had broken out but was later extinguished with no injuries reported.
The i Paper linked the escalating attacks on Saudi energy facilities to destabilising effects on Saudi Arabia’s energy posture and to strengthening Iran’s hand, while also tying the latest flare-up to the US and Israeli war with Iran.
Reuters reporting cited that the attacks come after strikes on shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the Yemeni coast, threatening another critical maritime trade route that has served as an alternative to the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
In the background of the Strait of Hormuz negotiations, the i Paper said Saudi Arabia signed a Nato style mutual defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan as the Kingdom sought to bolster its defences in the face of regional turmoil unleased by the US and Israeli war with Iran.
What each side says
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters that negotiations with Oman about "new maritime routes" were "in the final stages" but added, "this, however, does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen."
The Supreme National Security Council’s secretary, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, said the US must never threaten Iran again and must "completely compensate" Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and "unconditionally" release frozen assets, according to The Guardian.
In parallel, the Houthis’ military spokesperson Yahya Saree posted on X that the group "succeeded in targeting the Aramco refinery in Jizan with a drone, and the strike was precise," while the Saudi energy ministry said the blaze was extinguished and no casualties were reported.
NPR reported that Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said an "exchange of messages through intermediaries" is continuing with the United States but that it does not constitute negotiations, and that negotiations cannot resume until violations of the memorandum of understanding have ended.
CNBC reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not currently in direct talks with the U.S. to end the war with Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz, even as it said messages are being exchanged through intermediaries.
What’s at stake next
The i Paper framed the strategic stakes as Saudi Arabia trying to stop Iran from rebuilding Houthi military capacity and to stop the conflict from spreading to the Red Sea, while analysts pointed to increased coordination between the Houthis, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), and Iraqi militias.
“"The strategy is to use the war to advance its interests"”
It also said the Houthis’ wider agenda could be to force Saudi Arabia to lift the blockade of the key port of Hodeida, with Chatham House associate fellow Neil Quilliam describing "The strategy is to use the war to advance its interests" by increasing the flow of arms through Hodeida.
Reuters reporting described a US position that would lift the blockade of Iranian ports once a deal is announced to restore commercial shipping without impediments, and it said U.S. actions would be tied to Iran’s implementation of commitments.
The Guardian said the reopening of the strait is contingent on other conditions, and it described how the final say in Tehran rests with supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since an airstrike killed his father and predecessor on February 28.
In the immediate security environment, the Houthis’ claimed attacks on Saudi energy assets and their declared naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea were described as threatening to reignite Yemen’s civil war after a 2022 truce, while the i Paper said Saudi priorities had been under pressure as the relative calm broke down when Saudi forces attacked the main airport in Sanaa.
