Lebanonupdated 21m ago3 min read
Israel’s Army Radio Says Aman Expects Hezbollah To Join Any Israel-Iran War
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Aman assessment: Hezbollah would join any Israel-Iran war, immediately or soon after. Army Radio reported Aman's assessment to Israel's political leadership.
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Hezbollah may rejoin
Israel’s Army Radio said, citing an assessment that the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, Aman, submitted to political leadership, that the likelihood of Hezbollah joining any new war between Israel and Iran is very high, either immediately upon its outbreak or shortly after. The assessment quoted by the radio said Hezbollah might resume attacks on towns in northern Israel if the confrontation with Iran resumes, and it added that the Israeli military is preparing for renewed fighting on the northern front. The radio also said Israel has recently observed activities by Hezbollah aimed at enhancing its military capabilities behind what it called the “red line” in Lebanon.
The radio claimed that Hezbollah possesses thousands of attack drones, including fiber-optic drones, and that it imports civil drones and equips them with explosive warheads in facilities for assembly inside Lebanon. The radio said Aman estimated that dozens of Hezbollah members have received training to operate these drones, and it noted that drone attacks attributed to Hezbollah killed 16 Israeli soldiers during the last war.
Drones, missiles, scenarios
The radio said the range of drones Hezbollah has used so far is between 10 and 15 kilometers, while Aman claims it seeks to own drones capable of reaching farther distances. The radio cited the Israeli army’s estimate that Hezbollah possesses around 10,000 missiles and rocket projectiles, and it said the majority are aimed at northern Israeli towns. The radio claimed that Hezbollah stores long-range missiles in underground facilities in the Bekaa, and it said prior Israeli bombardment led to the closing of their entrances.
The radio said the Israeli Army places among its scenarios the possibility of attacks on its forces deployed on Lebanese soil, including infiltration of Hezbollah squads, planting explosive devices, engaging with soldiers, and up to attempting to kidnap one of them. A senior Israeli military official, as quoted by the radio, said the army is preparing to face this possibility, and that its forces have moved in recent months whenever it detected what it regarded as preparations to carry out such operations.
Lebanon’s freedom at stake
Speaker Nabih Berri, head of the House of Representatives, replied to Kataeb Party leader and MP Sami Gemayel’s demand for comment on Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf’s remarks by saying: "We are free, we are free." The article said Berri’s response allowed every camp to interpret it in its own way, with Gemayel viewing it as rejection of tying Lebanon’s decision to Iran’s decision and thus rejection of entering any new war of support. The article said Hezbollah does not necessarily see a contradiction between Berri’s words and its stance, because it views aligning with Iran as not eliminating the Lebanese people’s freedom to determine their options.
The article framed the central question as whether Lebanon can ensure it won’t be targeted by Israel if the war with Iran resumes, and it asked whether Tel Aviv might see the regional war as an opportunity to complete its military objectives in Lebanon regardless of Hezbollah’s position. The article said the disagreement begins when the question is posed about how to protect Lebanon’s freedom, and it asked whether Lebanese can translate the parliamentary consensus on the phrase "We are free" into a political understanding that preserves the independence of their decision.