Cryptoupdated 1h ago2 min read
JPMorgan Projects 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns, Sets -9.7% Bear Case And 17% Bull Case
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JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts Bitcoin's annualized return of 10% over 10–15 years. Bear case projects -9.7% annualized return for Bitcoin over same horizon.
JPMorgan sets BTC range
JPMorgan Asset Management projected that bitcoin would deliver 10% annualized returns over the next decade in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, while also setting a bear case of -9.7% and a bull case of 17%.
JPMorgan’s report described bitcoin as a speculative asset and said its “volatility and unstable correlation to other asset classes…remain an obstacle to [its] widespread inclusion in portfolios.”
JPMorgan’s outlook compared bitcoin’s forecast with projected growth of 5.6%-6.6% for U.S. Treasuries, 7.5% and 7.7% for large- and small-cap U.S. stocks, and 5.5% for gold.
JPMorgan’s analysis also framed bitcoin as a hedge against monetary easing, stating that it “does not make a case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier.”
Not in covariance matrices
JPMorgan said it “debut bitcoin coverage, but unstable correlations to other assets impair a strategic allocation,” and it stopped short of full inclusion in its covariance matrices. JPMorgan explained that it “provide[s] a separate, smaller covariance matrix with BTC against a subset of assets,” rather than folding bitcoin into its main models.
JPMorgan’s report projected bitcoin volatility at 55% and also assigned bitcoin an arithmetic average annual return of 20.9%. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan highlighted the forecast on X, writing: “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and now they include you in their long-term capital market assumptions and predict you'll be the best-performing asset over the next decade.”
Institutional implications
JPMorgan’s 2027 LTCMA placed bitcoin’s 10% compounded annual return above U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, while U.S. real estate investment trusts were forecast at 8.2%. JPMorgan’s report also projected a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio return of 7% and said its updated outlook took account of productivity gains from artificial intelligence, corporate profitability and higher bond yields.
“Bitcoin’s forecast appears alongside traditional asset classes, but the company has not identified it as an appropriate allocation for every investor.”
JPMorgan’s approach left bitcoin outside main portfolio allocation models because unstable correlations kept it from being treated as a portfolio diversification tool. JPMorgan’s inclusion of bitcoin in long-term return analysis, while keeping it out of main allocation models, set up a tension between a return forecast and a risk profile that the bank quantified with 55% annualized volatility.