Europe · updated 1h ago · 3 min read
Marine Le Pen Leads 2027 France Presidential Poll, Toluna Harris Shows
Toluna Harris poll shows Le Pen at 33–36% in first round. Mélenchon remains runner-up in most tested scenarios, often reaching second round.
Whether the key issue is cost of living or national priority.
4 of 5 outlets skipped it: le Pen says French citizens get more rights regardless of skin colour.
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South China Morning Post
“French must come first, Le Pen declares at 2027 campaign launch Far-right leader promises ‘national priority’ for housing and benefits seven months ahead of France’s election”Read the original ↗
France 24
“Candidates from far-right leader Marine Le Pen to the far-left's Jean-Luc Mélenchon are racing to make the cost of living”Read the original ↗
France 24 frames the contest mainly around the cost of living, while the SCMP spotlights Le Pen’s “national priority” over foreigners.
Le Pen’s poll surge
Marine Le Pen is leading in first-round voting scenarios for France’s 2027 presidential election, with a Toluna Harris poll reported by Reuters putting her at between 33% and 36% depending on the field.
“between 33% and 36% of the votes of the first-round election”
Reuters said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left rival, is seen second in most tested scenarios and that Le Pen would beat him easily in a run-off.
In the same Reuters polling scenarios, Emmanuel Macron’s era ends with a hollowed-out political centre and a weak economy, opening space for hardline parties such as LFI and Le Pen’s National Rally.
The EU Today report frames the political stakes as France’s two-round system, saying a candidate can dominate the first round and still lose the second, while noting Le Pen reached the run-off in 2017 and 2022 but was defeated by Emmanuel Macron.
EU Today adds that a Le Pen presidency would place one of the bloc’s largest and most influential member states under a government committed to reclaiming powers from Brussels, with her programme including reductions in France’s contribution to the EU budget and opposition to elements of the bloc’s climate agenda.
“National priority” housing
Seven months before the presidential polls, Marine Le Pen told supporters in Hénin-Beaumont that French people would “have priority in their own country”, regardless of their skin colour, religion, or origin.
Euronews reported that Le Pen used her first major campaign speech in the northern town of Hénin-Beaumont to pledge that French citizens would come “first in their own country” and to apply “national priority” to housing, notably access to social housing.
Reuters also tied the campaign’s momentum to polarisation, saying Le Pen maintained her lead ahead of the presidential election and that the electorate’s growing polarisation is unfolding as Macron’s second and final term comes to an end.
France 24 reported that an Ipsos survey found only 17 percent of voters feel hopeful, while 91 percent expressed negative sentiments about the current state of affairs, with worry, uncertainty and anger dominating.F
France 24 quoted Ipsos director Brice Teinturier saying, “The direct consequences of these negative emotions, of this worry, is a much deeper desire for radical change than in 2022,” as candidates from far-right leader Marine Le Pen to far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon race to make cost of living the defining issue.F
EU and domestic pressure
EU Today says European governments are attempting to accelerate major decisions before the French election, reflecting concern about what a Le Pen presidency could mean for the EU’s political direction.
“European governments are already attempting to accelerate major decisions”
It also notes that Le Pen’s greatest advantage may be less the strength of the Rassemblement National than the weakness and fragmentation of its opponents, with the French centre searching for a credible successor to Macron.
In parallel, Reuters reported that Edouard Philippe is the only centre-right candidate coming ahead of Mélenchon in one scenario tested and tying in another, while others end up behind in all scenarios.
France 24 described how voters are increasingly focused on purchasing power, with Teinturier telling Le Monde in an interview that “What concerns voters most of all is the issue of purchasing power,” and that it is economic and social issues, far more than immigration, that are of concern.F
Euronews added that Le Pen’s housing and cost-of-living pledges included cutting VAT from 20 to 5.5 percent for gas, electricity and heating oil, while she asked, “Where is the money going when taxes and levies are getting heavier while the services delivered to French citizens are crumbling?”