USA29 September, 20262 min read
Republican-Aligned Groups Plan $166 Million Ad Push To Boost Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate Bid
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Republican-aligned groups plan a $166 million Texas Senate ad push for Paxton. A Paxton ad aired 258 times on Judge Judy in September, per CNN.
Texas ad war escalates
Republican-aligned groups planned to spend $166 million on ads to boost Texas attorney general Ken Paxton’s Senate bid, with CNN’s analysis describing the effort as a “monumental” push to defeat James Talarico.
A single commercial promoting Paxton aired 258 times during “Judge Judy” in September, and the top ad for Paxton played 413 times during college games in September.
Republican-aligned groups were set to outspend Democratic counterparts by more than 5-to-1 in the final two months, with $166 million versus $32 million.
The Texas ad spending was part of a broader Republican spending pattern, with the total GOP-aligned bill in the Lone Star State expected to exceed $300 million.
Rep. Michael McCaul said, “I think we are looking at the numbers going down. The top of the ticket is not helpful for down-ballot candidates.”
Democrats begin to spend
Senate Majority PAC said it would begin an advertising effort meant to help James Talarico by targeting Ken Paxton, and the New York Times said the super PAC is aligned with Senator Chuck Schumer.
Senate Majority PAC resisted spending money in Texas, viewing the party’s path to a majority as running through smaller states where advertising is cheaper.
Senate Majority PAC would run statewide ads only on YouTube and other digital and streaming platforms and forgo more expensive television ads.
Kalshi’s Texas Senate market priced Talarico’s chances of victory at 60% and Paxton’s at 40%, and Kalshi said the latest TPOR tracking poll showed Talarico leading with 49% support and Paxton with 44%.
Kalshi quoted J. David Goodman saying, “Most were far more turned off by his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general.”
Spending totals and campaign stops
Houston Public Media reported that AdImpact projected spending on the Paxton-Talarico contest would more than double the earlier record with $440 million in spending by Nov. 3.
Talarico’s campaign had spent just under $50 million in advertising for the general election by Sept. 17, while Paxton’s campaign spent $465,000 and conservative super PACs spent $98.5 million.
The lion’s share, $62.4 million, came from Texas PAC, and another $11 million came from Make America Great Again (MAGA), Inc.
Ken Paxton would bring his Senate campaign to El Paso on Wednesday as part of a statewide tour, and the event “Protecting the Texas Promise” would start at 5:30 PM on September 30 at the Summit Ballroom & Conference Center.
Paxton’s event would be free but attendees must reserve a spot in advance, and Paxton would have as a guest Brandon Herrera, known online as “The AK Guy.”