Xi Jinping Invokes Thucydides Trap, Warns Trump Taiwan Mishandling Risks U.S.-China Relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked “the ‘Thucydides Trap’” as he opened talks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, asking whether the two countries could “overcome the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and establish a new paradigm for relations between great powers.”

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Xi’s warning tied the summit’s stakes to Taiwan, with Xinhua reporting that if the issue is not handled “properly,” it could put “the entire relationship in great jeopardy.”

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The CNBC report said Xi told Trump that the U.S. and China “will have clashes and even conflicts” if Taiwan is mishandled, while the Harvard Kennedy School account placed Xi’s question about avoiding the trap directly in the summit context.

The meeting took place at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, where Xi stressed to Trump that “the Taiwan question” is “the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,” according to Xinhua.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that Trump understands the issues surrounding Taiwan and is “very, very resolute in his answers,” as Xi delivered his Taiwan admonition to Trump in Beijing.

In a separate framing of the same warning, the Harvard Kennedy School account quoted Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning writing, “President Xi stressed to President Trump that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations.”

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The CNBC report also said Xi reiterated China’s position that Taiwan independence and peace in the Taiwan Strait “are as irreconcilable as fire and water,” while the Harvard Kennedy School account described Taiwan as a self-governing democracy that China claims as its territory.

The New York Post reported that Xi opened the meeting by raising the prospect of a future war between the US and China, quoting Xi’s broader question about whether the two sides could “overcome the Thucydides trap” and create a new paradigm of major-country relations.

Beyond Taiwan and the “Thucydides Trap,” the CNBC account said Trump and Xi agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and free of tolls, and it also said Xi expressed interest in buying more U.S. oil to reduce China’s dependence on the strait.

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The same CNBC report said the leaders discussed increasing Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products, and it described a state banquet where business leaders praised the “historic” visit and vowed to deepen and promote the U.S. and China relationship.

At the same time, the Harvard Kennedy School account emphasized that Xi’s Thucydides reference came as he stressed China’s stance on Taiwan, and it quoted Mao Ning warning that mishandling Taiwan would lead to “clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.”

The Guardian’s account of Xi’s remarks added that Xi later warned Trump that any missteps on Taiwan could push the two countries into “conflict,” while the CNBC report said a U.S. readout of the bilateral talks did not mention Taiwan and described the meeting as centered on enhancing economic cooperation.