Israelis delivered an inconclusive election result. Cue the wishful thinking

Maybe this time will be different. Those six words — with their glint of optimism — represent the only chance anyone has to form an Israeli government after Tuesday’s inconclusive election result: The hope, however far-fetched, that the same politicians who have been in power for years will suddenly decide to mend fences, form new alliances, break decades-long patterns and, somehow, cobble together a majority out of an incoherent Knesset.

Israelis voted en masse on Tuesday, with the highest turnout in a quarter-century, so the election results painted a reasonably accurate picture of the country. It’s a messy one. The pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs are more-or-less evenly split, but neither has a majority because neither will work with Arab parties whose voters — flexing their electoral muscle — will now hold 15 percent of the Knesset. We’ve been here before. From 2019 to 2021, voters in four successive elections delivered majorities opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

But that never led to Netanyahu’s defeat because the Jewish-led anti-Netanyahu parties refused to work with the Arab-led ones. When they finally tried, the government fell apart after a year. Will this time be different? Some opposition politicians are already insisting it will. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett boasted that “the October 7 Government is going home.” Yair Lapid, the sitting leader of the opposition, said Netanyahu suffered “total defeat.”

Golan, chair of the left-wing Democrats, declared that voters “fired” the prime minister. Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories Newsletter email address Get it By signing up, you agree to the terms Except Netanyahu is not fired. He did not suffer total defeat; he may not have suffered any defeat, and he and his government aren’t going anywhere, at least not right now. In fact, through the power of incumbency and control of the military, Netanyahu may be the one with the upper hand — even though most of the new Knesset’s 120 members want him gone.

Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot waves to supporters after the release of the first exit poll results following the general election, in Tel Aviv on October 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit) For the opposition to believe otherwise — to look at the election results and believe the Bibi era is over — relies on a heavy dose of wishful thinking. It would mean thinking that Bennett and his hawkish partner, Avigdor Liberman, would break their repeated, public promises not to join a coalition with Arab parties.

It would mean assuming that such a coalition could agree on a set of policies that would keep it from dissolving, as its predecessor did. And it would mean counting on Netanyahu and his partners to allow a transfer of power. None of those are sure things, to put it lightly. The good news for the opposition is that Netanyahu’s camp is relying on wishful thinking as well. Advertisement Netanyahu is presenting this as a victory — his Likud party did, after all, get the most votes — and he will almost certainly press President Isaac Herzog to give him the first crack at forming a government.

But no matter how he spins it, the 51-odd seats he controls are not even close to a 61-seat majority. Getting there would mean convincing a party that passionately hates him to crown him as prime minister for yet another term. The options are meager: Bennett and Liberman have both accused Netanyahu of treason. Golan is on the opposite end of the political spectrum. Arab parties are out of the question. That leaves the leading opposition party, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar.

Analysts have predicted for weeks that Herzog will try to push Netanyahu and Eisenkot into a unity government, but no one has explained exactly how that will work. President Isaac Herzog and his wife Michal cast their ballots at a polling station in Jerusalem during the election on October 27, 2026. (Yonatan Sindel/FLASH90) Will Eisenkot, who ran on a platform of unseating Netanyahu, agree to let him go first as prime minister — especially when the last guy to make exactly that agreement, Benny Gantz, never actually got the top job?

Will Netanyahu — who has suggested that Israel is in danger of destruction if anyone else becomes premier — relinquish the role he’s held for almost all of the past 17 years? Both seem unlikely. There’s also the inconvenient reality that even if they decide to join together, the two parties will add up to around 45 or 46 seats — and would still need a third or fourth party to achieve a majority. Who would that be? One tool that could help Netanyahu stay in power is a drastic one: Numerous reports in recent weeks have said he’s pushed for renewed war with Iran, only to be stymied by IDF Chief Eyal Zamir and US President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu could overcome those objections, launch a war, and then demand a unity government under his leadership to prosecute it. Advertisement That comes with obvious risks — missiles raining down on Israeli cities, for starters — and it won’t last forever. It also risks blatantly politicizing the one thing that was supposed to be above the fray: wars against Israel’s adversaries. The deadlock may be broken. It’s possible that the opposition will agree to some form of collaboration with the newly emboldened Arab parties.

It’s possible Netanyahu will start another war with Iran and convince his sworn rivals that his intentions are pure. But either of those outcomes would mean politicians weaning themselves off grievances they’ve spent a long time nursing. If they don’t, the quagmire remains, and Netanyahu stays prime minister. So will this time be different? Maybe. But don’t hold your breath. Is our live election coverage important to you? Are you relying on The Times of Israel for accurate and timely coverage of the 2026 Israeli election?

If so, please join The Times of Israel Community. For as little as $6/month, you will: Support our independent journalists who are working around the clock to report political developments as they unfold; Read ToI with a clear, ads-free experience on our site, apps and podcasts; and Gain access to exclusive content shared only with the ToI Community, including our DocuNation streaming film series and weekly letters from founding editor David Horovitz.

Join The Times of Israel Community JOIN NOW Already a member? Sign in to stop seeing this You're a dedicated reader We’re really pleased that you’ve read X Times of Israel articles in the past month. That’s why we started the Times of Israel - to provide discerning readers like you with must-read coverage of Israel and the Jewish world. So now we have a request. Unlike other news outlets, we haven’t put up a paywall. But as the journalism we do is costly, we invite readers for whom The Times of Israel has become important to help support our work by joining The Times of Israel Community.

For as little as $6 a month you can help support our quality journalism while enjoying The Times of Israel AD-FREE , as well as accessing exclusive content available only to Times of Israel Community members. Thank you, David Horovitz, Founding Editor of The Times of Israel Join Our Community Join Our Community Already a member? Sign in to stop seeing this Most Popular 1 Likud said already preparing to allege election was ‘stolen’ if Netanyahu loses 2 Explainer Israel goes to the polls: A guide to the election and the battle to form a government 3 ToI Live!

WATCH: Israel’s election analyzed, as polls close and exit polls are published 4 In ‘unprecedented confrontation,’ IDF chief said resisting Netanyahu’s order for military action tied to Iran 5 Report: Zamir the only security chief to oppose pre-election military action against Iran 6 Analysis After months of threats by Trump, resumption of Iran war now seems inevitable 7 As polls show deadlock, betting markets strongly favor Eisenkot to replace Netanyahu 8 Turnout hits historic high as Israel votes; election committee rejects multiple claims of foul play read more: Israel & the Region 2026 Israeli election Benjamin Netanyahu Gadi Eisenkot Isaac Herzog If you’d like to comment, join The Times of Israel Community.

JOIN THE TOI COMMUNITY Already a member? Log in here close popup Sign in or Join The Times of Israel Community Sign in or Register Paying ToI Community members are invited to comment on articles Email address * Please use the following structure: example@domain.com Continue Or Continue with By joining you agree to the terms and conditions Send me The Times of Israel Daily Edition back close popup Register to continue Email address * Change REGISTER Or Continue with back close popup Log in to continue Email address * Something went wrong.

Please try again in a few minutes.. Continue back close popup Sign in or Join The Times of Israel Community Sign in or Register You are currently registered. Please join The Times of Israel Community to comment and enjoy other Community benefits Only ToI Community members can comment below articles Email address * Password * Incorrect password. Please try again or choose an option below. Forgot your password? / Send me a login link Continue Sign in without joining Or Continue with close popup Check your email We sent an email to you at .

It has a link that will sign you in. Click the link in that email to complete registration so you can comment. back close popup Join The Times of Israel Community Commenting is available for paying members of The Times of Israel Community only. Please join our Community to comment and enjoy other Community benefits. Email address * Please use the following structure: example@domain.com JOIN NOW! close popup Thank you! Now check your email You are now a member of The Times of Israel Community!

We sent you an email with a login link to . Once you're set up, you can start enjoying Community benefits and commenting.