Targeted killings haven’t improved Israel’s strategic regional position — experts

AP — Over the past two weeks, the Israel Defense Forces has killed both the leader of Hamas’s military wing and his replacement — the latest in a long string of targeted killings aimed at senior members of Iran-backed terror groups. They were identified asMohammed Odehand Izz al-Din al-Haddad, architects of the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Officials say their killings were part of broader efforts to pursue those behind the onslaught that triggered the war in Gaza. But while targeted killings may provide tangible achievements that leaders can brand as victories, they rarely address the underlying grievances that propel conflicts. “The killing of military chiefs such as Odeh and Haddad points to Israel’s operational ability to reach Hamas’s military leadership,” said Nasser Khdour of the nonprofit ACLED, which tracks reports of political violence and conflict worldwide. But, he added, “the killing of senior commanders is unlikely, on its own, to push Hamas toward disarmament or make it accept the complete removal of its role in Gaza’s security and governance.” Israel has carried out dozens of targeted killings throughout its history, but Palestinian and Lebanese terror groups have often endured and grown even more powerful after the loss of top leaders. Take Hezbollah, for example. An Israeli airstrike killed its then-leader Abbas Musawi in southern Lebanon in 1992. Under Hassan Nasrallah, his charismatic replacement, Hezbollah grew into the region’s most powerful armed group and fought Israel to a bloody stalemate in 2006. Nasrallah and nearly all of his deputies were killed in the 2024 war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Iran-backed group suffered other major losses that year, but resumed missile and drone attacks on Israel days after the start of the current war. Hamas has lost one leader after another. Israel killed its founder and spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, in a 2004 airstrike. Nearly all the architects of the group’s October 7 massacre have since been killed. But the group remains in control of the nearly half of Gaza that the IDF doesn’t occupy and is still managing to recruit new members and maintain a tight grip on Palestinian society, as no alternative to the terror group has been stood up. While the US is seeking to install a technocratic Palestinian government to replace Hamas, the plan hinges on the terror group agreeing to disarm, which it has shown little willingness to do. So both Hamas and Hezbollah press on, fueled by the decades-old grievances stemming from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The United States has also resorted to targeted killings against al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, taking out Osama bin Laden in a 2011 raid in Pakistan and ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019. Both groups have been vastly diminished, but only after years-long wars involving ground forces. Yossi Kuperwasser, the former head of Israel’s military intelligence research division, said in March that targeted killings can be an effective tool but are not a “cure for all problems.” “These operations by themselves don’t dramatically change the ability of those organizations to cause damage and to carry out attacks,” he acknowledged. “But it’s important for Israel to weaken its enemies.” In Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran, he noted, Israel has taken out dozens of figures, reshaping the leadership structure in lasting ways. Targeted killings were a key strategy in the early days of the Iran war. Top military and political officials up to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed in the war’s opening salvos. Khamenei has been replaced by his son, Mojtaba, who is seen as even less compromising. Kuperwasser said that targeted killings in Iran hadn’t transformed the theocracy but had changed it. “Maybe there’s not ‘regime change’ yet, but there is ‘change in regime.’ The people are not the same people,” he said. US President Donald Trump, for his part, insists that regime change has in fact taken place, citing multiple layers of Iran’s leadership that have been taken out. And yet, the Islamic Republic remains in power, with authority shifted to its less theocratic but more hardline Revolutionary Guard. Meanwhile, the goals of the operation pertaining to curbing Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors have gone unmet. In past instances, targeted killings have served to radicalize followers or members of political movements and terror groups, elevating more extreme successors or turning slain leaders into martyrs with enduring influence. Northeastern University political scientist Max Abrahms said data from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel, and the Palestinian territories show violence against civilians spikes after targeted killings. “Leadership decapitation is risky,” he said. “When you take out a leader that prefers some degree of restraint and had influence over subordinates, then there’s a very good chance that, upon that person’s death, you’re going to see even more extreme tactics.” Targeted killings can create leadership vacuums and the potential for change, but only when coupled with a coherent political strategy, said Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “You can decapitate an organization or defeat it militarily, but if you don’t follow through politically, it doesn’t work. And it’s hard to see how this goes much further,” he said. Times of Israel staff contributed to this report. 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