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Channel 12 exit poll shows no clear victor: Netanyahu's Likud is ...

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Channel 12 exit poll shows no clear victor: Netanyahu’s Likud is largest party but his opponents have bigger bloc

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has won the most votes in Tuesday’s election, but neither of Israel’s two political camps has a clear path to forming a government, Channel 12’s exit poll shows.

The exit poll shows that the bloc of Jewish-led parties opposing Netanyahu is projected to win a total of 52 seats, compared to 50 seats for the parties supporting the premier. Neither is close to a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab-led parties, which also oppose Netanyahu, are expected to win a total of 18 seats, .

Likud will win 24 Knesset seats, according to the exit poll, while the centrist opposition Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, will win 22 seats.

The lack of a clear victor is in line with weeks of surveys that predicted an inconclusive election. It indicates that the coming days and weeks will see parties and their leaders negotiate with each other in an attempt to cobble together enough support to form a government, .

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot may declare victory and appeal to President Isaac Herzog to give them the first shot at forming a government, given that Netanyahu leads the largest party and Eisenkot leads the biggest bloc.

But it also leaves open the possibility that neither Netanyahu nor his opponents will be able to assemble a coalition. In that case, Israel may hold a repeat election, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister. That would be a repeat of 2019 to 2022, when the country held five rounds of voting.

The exit poll comes as the Central Elections Committee has begun counting votes. The committee will provide official tallies throughout the night, and the actual results often differ from exit poll projections.

In third place, according to the exit poll, is the opposition B’Yachad party, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, with 12 seats, then the Arab-led Joint List party with 11 seats.

Two small parties, the nonaligned Reservists and right-wing People of Israel, are projected to fall short of the minimum 3.25 percent of votes needed to enter the Knesset, according to Channel 12.

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What we found (1)

The Times of Israel reports a Channel 12 exit poll with no clear winner, and the figures are attributed to the poll throughout. In its own voice it describes the parties of Palestinian citizens of Israel only as "Arab-led parties" and their voters as "that sector", and never uses the word Palestinian. A reader learns of a record result without learning that it belongs to Palestinian citizens of Israel.

  1. Erases a people's national identity

    Serious

    “a record number for that sector”

    Why this matters
    The words "that sector" describe the voters behind these parties with an administrative label drawn from the "Arab sector" vocabulary. The phrase also reports their record result.
    The impression it gives
    A reader takes the record 18 seats as the result of a demographic segment of Israel's electorate, with no national identity of its own.
    The context
    Survey evidence shows a majority of Arab citizens of Israel chose a self-description that included Palestinian. The article never uses the word Palestinian, here or anywhere else, and it applies the same Arab-only label in S14.

    How we know

    • On the recordIn Sammy Smooha's April-June 2019 survey of 718 adult Arab citizens of Israel, including Druze and Bedouin, 61.9% chose a self-description containing Palestinian. This is historical survey evidence, not a 2026 percentage or proof of any individual's identity. Arab and Palestinian identities can coexist.newscord.org (opens in a new tab)
    • Our analysis“61.9% chose a description of themselves that included Palestinian”Palestinian citizens of Israel voted in record numbers
    • Elsewhere in the article“the Arab-led Joint List party with 11 seats”
    • Checked against the whole articleIt never uses the words “Palestinian”.

    Show it in the article

    “possibly with the support of the Arab-led parties, which have generally not joined governing coalitions”

    Why this matters
    These words explain the parties' place in coalition talks using only the label "Arab-led". They set the parties apart from a contest the outlet otherwise describes in terms of blocs and leaders.
    The impression it gives
    A reader understands the question of whether these parties back a government as being about an ethnic minority's parties. Nothing tells the reader they represent Palestinian citizens of Israel.
    The context
    The supplied survey evidence links most of the citizens these parties represent to a Palestinian self-description. Without that, a reader cannot see that the coalition question concerns whether parties of Palestinian citizens are admitted to government.

    How we know

    • On the recordIn Sammy Smooha's April-June 2019 survey of 718 adult Arab citizens of Israel, including Druze and Bedouin, 61.9% chose a self-description containing Palestinian. This is historical survey evidence, not a 2026 percentage or proof of any individual's identity. Arab and Palestinian identities can coexist.newscord.org (opens in a new tab)
    • Our analysis“In Sammy Smooha's 2019 survey of 718 adult Arab citizens of Israel”Palestinian citizens of Israel voted in record numbers
    • Checked against the whole articleIt never uses the words “Palestinian”.

    Show it in the article

How other outlets reported it

Our analysisPalestinian citizens of Israel voted in record numbers

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