Agudat Yisrael support, Arab parties, or new elections: Post-vote scenarios facing Israel

Agudat Yisrael, the three-MK haredi faction led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could provide some form of support for a government led by a member of the opposition, according to assessments within the political establishment ahead of the elections.With less than a day remaining before the vote begins, political figures are considering several possible scenarios, including forming a government with the support of Arab parties or holding another election.

Another possibility being discussed is support from Agudat Yisrael in exchange for budgetary agreements, although even such an arrangement would not necessarily eliminate the need for votes from the Arab parties.

The possibility of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc is not new. Maariv reported in August that Agudat Yisrael was examining new political options, including potential cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot.The discussions took place against the backdrop of tensions within United Torah Judaism, particularly disagreements between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah over the haredi military draft and relations with Netanyahu.According to that report, while Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition's conduct, Degel Hatorah conveyed messages of despair and a lack of confidence in Netanyahu and his government.A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando, expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the political bloc led by Netanyahu, further deepened uncertainty surrounding relations between the haredi parties and Likud.Goldknopf, however, faces a significant political obstacle.

His voter base is largely identified with the Right, and according to assessments cited in the report, any indication that he would be willing to support a government led by parties from the change bloc could prompt some of his supporters to defect to Likud or Otzma Yehudit.Is Bennett the only politician who could reshape the political blocs?Beyond the possibility of haredi support, political figures are also examining a scenario in which former prime minister Naftali Bennett could determine the composition of the next government if neither bloc secures a majority sufficient to form a coalition.One possibility being raised within the political establishment is that Bennett could join a government led by Netanyahu if neither bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold required for a Knesset majority.Although this is considered a remote scenario, some believe Bennett is the only leader within the change bloc capable of making such a move, given his political background on the Right.Such a decision, however, would require Bennett to change his political support base and would also be complicated by the composition of his current party.Liberman disagreements with Netanyahu make relationship unlikelyThe possibility of Avigdor Liberman taking a similar step has also been raised, particularly in light of his previous decision to join a Netanyahu-led government and serve as defense minister.However, according to the assessment presented, Liberman is currently far from making such a move because of the personal and political disagreements between him and the prime minister.Thus, alongside the possibility of securing outside support from haredi parties, the question of which politician might be willing to shift their political support base could become one of the central issues in coalition negotiations.For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments rather than agreements reached between the parties.