USAupdated 15m ago2 min read
2026 US Midterm Elections Set Trump’s Agenda as Early Voting Tops 50 Million Ballots
“In Italy, where this reporter lives, Corriere della Serra”
“about 50 million ballots have already been cast”
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Approximately 50 million ballots have already been cast in early voting. Midterms will determine Trump's ability to implement domestic and foreign policies.
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Midterms and Trump’s leverage
The 2026 US midterm elections are set to determine President Donald Trump’s ability to implement his domestic and foreign policies, test the popularity of his performance, and reveal the American public’s stance on his administration’s policies. The results could lay the groundwork for a different political era in Washington if Republicans lose their majority in one or both houses, the House and the Senate, or in both. Trump needs Congress’s cooperation to pass legislation, approve budgets, and confirm key appointments, in addition to funding many of his administration’s programs.
The New York Times reports that about 50 million ballots have already been cast in early voting, with early turnout outpacing the last midterm cycle in each of the major Senate battlegrounds. The New York Times adds that Election Day is Tuesday, but the impact of the early vote will be known only after polls close, making it difficult to pinpoint what those early votes say about each race.
What polls and turnout suggest
The New York Times says early voting figures offer few positives for Republicans, because strong turnout among key demographics stood out in critical Senate battlegrounds. The number of early ballots cast in every Senate battleground it is tracking has surpassed the total number of early ballots cast in 2022. Vietnam.vn says polls show the Democratic Party ahead of the Republican Party of President Donald Trump in the midterm elections on November 3.
Vietnam.vn also states that, according to RealClearPolling data aggregated through October 30, Democratic candidates were averaging 52% of the vote for their party in legislative elections, versus 43.1% for the Republicans. Vietnam.vn adds that to win the majority in the House, a party must secure at least 218 of the 435 seats, and it says the House is currently controlled by the Republican Party.
Prediction markets and stakes
The U.S. congressional elections are, given wagers totaling more than $1.48 billion, the biggest stress test yet for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The prices summarized by the analytics firm BetInt pointed on Tuesday afternoon almost unchanged to the Democrats winning the House of Representatives with a 94 percent probability and the Senate with 74 percent. Yesha Yadav, Vice Dean at the Vanderbilt University Law School, said, “Tuesday indeed represents a real test for the new wave of prediction markets,”.
Democrats would use their expected presidential veto to block any legislation not backed by the White House. If Democrats fail to seize the majority, Trump would have the opportunity to continue pursuing his political program, strengthening his standing within the party, and preserving influence for the faction aligned with him in shaping future US policy.