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South America06 October, 20263 min read

Flávio Bolsonaro Wins First Round, Faces Lula da Silva in Brazil Runoff

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Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula in the first round, around 47% to 45%. Neither candidate surpassed 50%, sending Brazil to a runoff on October 25.

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Flávio Bolsonaro Wins First Round, Faces Lula da Silva in Brazil Runoff
Image: 毎日新聞

Runoff After First Round

Brazil’s presidential election moved to a runoff after Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took 45.16%, according to data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) with the gap described as about 2 million votes.

Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia on Sunday, “Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” and he added, “It’s the end of the Workers’ Party era,” as he looked ahead to the Oct. 25 showdown.

Image from 20Minutos
Image: 20Minutos

Lula said the result was “unexpected” as he told supporters, “Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” and he said, “I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan.”

The TSE said neither candidate surpassed 50% of the valid votes required, and the next presidential term is set to begin Jan. 5 with the winner controlling Latin America’s biggest economy and a population of 214 million.

Reuters reported that Bolsonaro would face Lula in a runoff later this month after the election centered on “the cost of living, corruption and insecurity in Brazilians’ daily lives,” with Bolsonaro’s 47% to 45% result expected to buoy his campaign and potentially bolster Brazil’s currency and stock market.

Reporting for this sectionBBCAP News

Campaign Math and Voter Reach

Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead set up a three-week sprint in which both campaigns sought to reach voters who did not support them in the first round, with AP saying both candidates would have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round.

Edinho Silva, the chairman of Lula’s Workers’ Party, told journalists in Sao Paulo that Lula would meet with campaign managers in Brasilia to refine his message delivery, evaluate regional turnout figures, and re-allocate resources to key battleground states ahead of the second round.

Image from 20Minutos
Image: 20Minutos

Silva said, “Now it is mano a mano. We will show Brazilians that Flavio Bolsonaro is dangerous and will not run this country in a way they will see their lives improve,” and he added, “We will try to speak to every democratic force in this country.”

Al Jazeera reported that about 30 million Brazilians, or 21 percent of the electorate, did not vote in the first round, and it said Lula supporters felt their candidate had not used social media as effectively as the right-wing camp.

Reuters said the campaign offered “meager policy debate,” and it quoted Robert Muggah, cofounder of Igarape Institute, saying, “The pollsters missed badly,” as he argued runoff polls could understate Bolsonaro.

Reporting for this section毎日新聞Bolsonaro leads. Will face Lula in runoff in Brazil’s presidential election

What the Runoff Could Change

The runoff’s stakes extended beyond Brazil’s domestic politics as Reuters said the election followed a string of wins across Latin America by right-wing parties aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump, and it framed Bolsonaro as an ally of Trump.

AP said a win for Bolsonaro would increase U.S. influence in Latin America, while a Lula win would keep Brazil at a distance from Washington and continue to deepen its relationship with China.

Bloomberg Línea said Bolsonaro’s potential government would likely tighten ties with Washington while largely maintaining Brazil’s impetus to diversify its markets, and it described the possibility of advances in sectors such as beef, ethanol, steel, and critical minerals.

Bloomberg Línea also said local steel mills were pressuring the government to revive a 2018 agreement that allowed Brazil to export steel to the U.S. duty-free within certain quotas, after Washington repealed the agreement and imposed a 50% tariff.

Bloomberg Línea quoted Tarcilo Rodrigues, director of the ethanol broker Bioagencia, saying, “Reciprocity, not subservience,” as Brazilian ethanol producers said any move to remove U.S. ethanol tariffs should be accompanied by concessions including greater access for Brazilian sugar.

Reporting for this sectionAP NewsBloomberg Línea