Nate Silver Highlights Very Strong Polls as Inside Elections Shifts Nine Senate Races

Silver, Inside Elections, Senate

Inside Elections shifted nine Senate races on Thursday—all in favor of Democrats, as forecaster Nate Silver highlighted "very strong polls" for the party on X.

Inside Elections shifts races1 of 1 outlets reported it▾

Inside Elections moved Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Louisiana and Mississippi, and it described the changes as coming just days before the crucial midterm elections on November 3.

Nate Silver said, "Very strong polls for Democrats in individual Senate races over the past couple of days," and he added that "Polls can be wrong" because models and probabilities are used.

Silver cites very strong polls1 of 1 outlets reported it▾

Inside Elections also said it was "past the point" where people could honestly say "polls show the Senate is too close to call," while the forecast said there is a 77.7 percent chance that Democrats regain control of the Senate.

Trump administration officials including Vice President JD Vance and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. hit the campaign trail to stump for candidates in tight races.

Reporting for this sectionNewsweek

Five days to go

With five days to go before the United States midterms, Democrats led Republicans in national polls by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a gap of 8.2 percentage points, according to RealClearPolling’s national polling average. President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance campaigned on Wednesday in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina, as both parties fought for control of Congress. Democrats are seeking a net gain of three seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 seats.

Democratic strategist Joel Rubin described the midterms as a potential "protest election," saying, "I think that overwhelmingly American voters who will vote Democratic are voting because they want to put a check on President Trump’s power." Republican strategist Suhail Khan said Trump was losing support among some of his own voters, and a voter in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania said, "I keep voting and I’m independent, I vote both sides … I’m so frustrated and out of hope,".

Reporting for this sectionAl Jazeera

Polling paths to Senate

CNN polling across four key Senate races found Democrats well-positioned in Michigan and Texas, with no clear leader in Maine or Kansas, and it said the races leave Democrats hopeful about taking control of the Senate after next Tuesday’s elections.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (49%) led Republican Mike Rogers (42%) among likely voters, while in Texas CNN said Democrat James Talarico (49%) led Republican Ken Paxton (43%) among likely voters.

Maine’s likely-voter poll found no clear leader between Collins (45%) and her Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (49%), and it described the race as a referendum on Collins.

Kansas also had no clear leader between Democrat Adam Hamilton (49%) and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall (45%), even as likely voters there said they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate.

Senator Darline Graham’s bid to succeed her brother Lindsey Graham became a tossup in South Carolina, and Graham leads Dr. Annie Andrews by less than a single percentage point.

Reporting for this sectionCNNThe New York Times