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Invest 91L forms
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida has been designated Invest 91-L, and the National Hurricane Center said a broad area of low pressure is forming over the eastern Gulf of Mexico while the system remains disorganized with light winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms.
“Development odds for Invest 91L are increasing in the Gulf of America right off the coast of Florida”
Patch reported that as of 2 p.m. Saturday, NHC forecasters gave the system a 30% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next seven days.
The same Patch update said the NHC would classify Invest 91L as a tropical depression once it develops a well-defined center of circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less, and it would become a tropical storm if sustained winds increase to 39 mph or higher.
WAFB said the NHC designated the disturbance as Invest 91L over the northeastern Gulf just off Florida’s west coast, and it described an Invest as a label used to identify an area under investigation for potential tropical development over the next 7 days.
WAFB also said that if the system strengthens into a tropical storm, it would receive the name Bertha, while development chances were 20% over the next 48 hours and 30% over the next seven days in the 7 a.m. Saturday update.
Forecasts diverge
WKMG said the National Hurricane Center bumped up the formation potential for the system in the eastern Gulf as a surface low pressure is attempting to form, and it said odds are now medium for tropical development.
WKMG reported that Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly through the system Sunday afternoon to look for an organized surface center, and it said models shifted the system further west over the last 24 hours.
WAFB said forecast guidance has shifted the potential track of deeper tropical moisture a bit farther west, while it also warned that there is considerable uncertainty in both the system’s track and strength because some models keep it weak and drifting northward and others, including the more aggressive GRAF model, suggest it could linger over the northern Gulf for several days.
MundoNOW said the NHC began to monitor Invest 91L and that, although it has not reached the category of tropical depression, its evolution will remain under observation in the coming days.
MundoNOW added that the forecast said Invest 91L has few chances of strengthening during the next 48 hours, and it described the system as moving slowly north and then northwest.
Rain risk and timing
Whether Invest 91L develops or not, Patch said the disturbance is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall to Florida’s west coast and parts of the Panhandle over the next several days, with localized flooding possible where the heaviest bands repeatedly move over the same locations.
“Invest 91L near Florida may become a tropical storm: Spaghetti models A disorganized but formidable-looking mass of thunderstorm activity has developed just west of Florida over the eastern Gulf, and is in no hurry to clear the area”
Patch forecast totals of 2 to 4 inches of rain, with locally higher totals around 6 inches possible along Florida's Gulf coast, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, and it listed Saturday’s chance of precipitation as 50%.
WALB said heavy rainfall remains the primary concern, especially across parts of Florida including the Panhandle and Big Bend, through early next week, and it said there is no significant tropical threat to southeast Louisiana at this time.
Tallahassee Democrat described the system as a rainmaker and said the odds of it eventually becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm are up to 40% in seven days and 20% in two days in the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook.
It also said periodic rain chances, most concentrated along the Florida Gulf Coast, will persist through at least Tuesday, likely shifting to be focused on the Panhandle early next week.
