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New York Times/Siena Polls Show Democrats Tied In South Carolina, Leading In Minnesota

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NYT/Siena polls show Democrats tied in South Carolina Senate race. Minnesota NYT/Siena poll shows Democrats leading; GOP Senate pickup hopes fade.

Polls Tighten Senate Map

New surveys highlighted Democrats’ Senate pickup opportunities in South Carolina and possibly Florida ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, while a Minnesota poll suggested GOP hopes of an unlikely pickup there might have been dashed.

In South Carolina, the New York Times/Siena polls showed appointed GOP Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48% among likely voters, after a separate Times/Siena poll showed a dead heat in Kansas.

In Minnesota, the New York Times/Siena survey showed Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Republican former TV sportscaster Michele Tafoya 54%-40%.

In Florida, the poll showed GOP Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by 6 points, 50-44%, with a University of North Florida poll last week putting Moody up by a similar 4-point margin, 49%-45%.

In Ohio, Suffolk University polling showed Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown leading Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, 47% to 44%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Reporting for this sectionCNNFox News

Candidates, Attacks, and Stakes

The South Carolina race remained a dead heat at 48% apiece between Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews, and Fox News said Graham was looking to secure a full six-year term after beating out a crowded field of Republican challengers in the primary.

CNN said likely voters in South Carolina backed Andrews, a physician, by 13 points that she has the “right experience to be an effective senator,” while they said by 7 points that Graham does not.

CNN also said just 39% of likely voters in the conservative state said Andrews is too far to the left, and it said Andrews leads 57%-37% among independents.

In Minnesota, CNN said Flanagan leads by double digits, 54%-39%, among independents, even as the poll showed voters had concerns about her being too far to the left.

In Michigan, the progressive Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed faced Republican Trump ally former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers for the open Senate seat after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters retired, with USA TODAY saying El-Sayed leads by narrow margins in recent polls.

Reporting for this sectionCNNUSA Today

Control of Congress at Risk

USA TODAY said Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, where they control 218 seats to Democrats' 214, and it said the GOP's majority in the Senate sits at 53-47.

“In the Senate, the GOP's majority sits at 53-47.”
USA Today

CBC said Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take control of the 435-member House of Representatives, while it said Democrats need a net gain of four seats to achieve a 51-49 Senate majority.

Lumni Enseignement said the midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, and it said the House of Representatives is renewed every two years while one third of the Senate is renewed every two years.

Lumni Enseignement said the current assembly is presided over by the speaker Mike Johnson, and it said Republicans hold 219 seats in the House while Democrats hold 214.

CBC said Democrats will have to wrest control of the Senate from U.S. President Donald Trump's Republican Party, and it said Trump launched an Islamophobic rant against El-Sayed during a rally Sunday in the border town of Port Huron, Mich.

Reporting for this sectionUSA TodayCBC