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El Niño to intensify
The UN weather agency warned on Friday that a strong El Niño is expected to intensify starting in August, with the event continuing to steadily intensify into a strong event during August-October 2026.
“a strong El Nino is expected to intensify starting in August”
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño will likely increase above-normal temperatures globally and significantly shift rainfall patterns, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to amplify regional climate impacts including drought, floods and wildfire risk around the Indian Ocean basin.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, "El Niño is strengthening - adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas."
The World Meteorological Organization also said it is intensifying its mobilisation of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimise the impacts of El Niño.
Heat, drought, and rain shifts
The World Meteorological Organization cautioned that the strengthening El Niño will likely trigger extreme heat, drought and rainfall well into next year, and that the key Pacific monitoring area reached its warmest and most intense level ever recorded for the 15th week since it formed.
Columbia University scientists reported that the key area used to measure El Niño strength this week reached its warmest and most intense level ever recorded for the 15th week since it formed, which is early in its lifetime.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters on Friday, "Two months ago, I warned that El Nino was arriving on our doorstep. Now it is inside the house — and turning up the heat."
The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño’s effects will combine with long-term global warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas, and that the developing El Niño is expected to bring changes in rainfall patterns that will bring chaotic extremes to different parts of the world in autumn and winter.
Preparedness and fossil fuels
The World Meteorological Organization said it is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning to help governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health prepare for potential impacts, including vulnerable communities.
“El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world”
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, "El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world, but forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do."
In New York, Guterres warned that the climate crisis is in overdrive and said, "The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event."
The World Meteorological Organization’s update framed the forecast as a window for early action, while Guterres said fossil fuels are fanning the flames of the crisis and called for expansion to stop.
