Technology and Science19 August, 20263 min read
NOAA Says Very Strong El Nino Likely Exceeds All Previous Records Since 1950
“NOAA's latest forecast says that between October and December, there is a 69% chance”
“El Nino is strengthening, adding fuel to a planet already on fire.”
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NOAA projects a very strong El Niño with over 90% probability this fall and winter. Forecasts indicate this event could surpass all El Niño records since 1950.
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NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño
NOAA says El Nino conditions are intensifying and is now highly confident there will be a very strong El Nino during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter seasons. In its latest forecast, NOAA says that between October and December there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of all previous El Nino events on record, dating back to 1950. Michelle L'Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, told ABC News, "There is a greater than 90% chance of a 'very strong' El Nino, which is the highest chance to date."
NOAA also cautioned that even with an event of this magnitude, "they are not guaranteed," and that seasonal forecasts are expressed in terms of probabilities. The ABC News report adds that the current event ranks as the second strongest on record for this time of the year, behind 1997, and that impacts tend to be most consistent from late autumn through early spring following onset.
UN warns heat, drought, flooding
The World Meteorological Organization warned that a rapidly intensifying El Nino will dominate global weather patterns in the coming months, raising the risk of heatwaves, drought, and flooding around the globe. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, "El Nino is not just on our doorstep, it is inside the house and turning up the heat," and described it as "only a warm-up act" as El Nino strengthens. The Al Jazeera report quotes WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo saying, "Forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards; people do," as she urged early warnings to translate into concrete action.
Al Jazeera adds that central Pacific sea-surface temperatures are projected to soar more than 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.22 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal, and that WMO projects above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas. The report also says the most intense heat signals are expected to stretch across Africa, southern Europe, the Indian subcontinent, East Asia, and South America.
What comes next for planning
AP reports that a key area of the Pacific Ocean used to measure the strength of El Nino reached its warmest and most intense level ever recorded for the 15th week since it formed, which scientists at Columbia University said is early in its lifetime. AP says El Nino won’t peak for several months and should last through spring 2027, while the World Meteorological Organization cautioned it will likely trigger extreme heat, drought and rainfall well into next year. Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University climate scientist, told AP, "A year from now, it’s going to be very hot in the Northern Hemisphere."
AP also reports that El Nino’s effects will combine with long-term global warming from the burning of coal, oil and gas, and that the WMO warned there is a strong chance of drought and wildfires in Indonesia, India and other parts of Asia, south and east Australia, chunks of South America and southern regions in Africa. In the same AP report, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, "This El Nino, developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold."