Full story
El Niño turns up heat
The World Meteorological Organization warned that a rapidly intensifying El Niño event will dominate global weather patterns in the coming months, threatening to heighten the risk of heatwaves, drought, and flooding around the globe.
“Central Pacific sea-surface temperatures are projected to soar more than 2.9 degrees Celsius”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, "El Nino is not just on our doorstep, it is inside the house and turning up the heat," as he described the strengthening event as "only a warm-up act."
The WMO projected central Pacific sea-surface temperatures to soar more than 2.9 degrees Celsius above normal, and said above-normal temperatures are expected across nearly all land areas.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, "Forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards; people do," urging early warnings to translate into concrete action by governments and humanitarian agencies.
The WMO also cautioned that this year’s El Nino could reach record intensity when it peaks in the latter half of the year, though computer model projections remain uncertain.
Monsoon risk and rainfall shifts
As El Niño strengthens from August to October, the UN chief warned it will push the world into "uncharted territory" and raise the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures and worsening droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events.
Guterres said, "Two months ago, I warned that El Nino was arriving on our doorstep. Now it is inside the house – and turning up the heat," linking the intensifying pattern to a summer of record-shattering heat domes and wildfires.
The WMO forecast nearly every land area on Earth to experience above-normal temperatures through October, while also warning that rainfall patterns will be disrupted, including below-average monsoon rains in India.
The Guardian reported that the risk of a weakened monsoon was highlighted by an "enhancement in the probability for below-normal rainfall," which it said would produce increased drought, floods and wildfire risk around the Indian Ocean basin.
Celeste Saulo called on governments to make preparations, saying, "But forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do," and adding that the El Niño developing against unprecedented ocean heat provides a window to anticipate risks and act.
What governments must do
The WMO said it is intensifying coordination, climate information services, and early-warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health prepare for potential impacts.
“"Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis"”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged nations to fast-track climate action, specifically pointing to fossil fuel expansion as the core driver amplifying the crisis and calling for an immediate halt to new coal, oil, and gas projects.
He warned, "Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis," and said, "Expansion must stop," as he framed the El Niño risk as converging with human-induced climate change.
The WMO projected that seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies in key El Nino monitoring regions could exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius during August-October, while also forecasting drier-than-normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent and parts of South Asia.
In its outlook, the WMO said wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast over the Greater Horn of Africa and southern Europe, and it stressed that these are probability-based seasonal forecasts rather than certainty.
