Coalition talks loom as Israel exit polls suggest Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tied

Israel could be in for weeks of political haggling after exit polls and partial official results showed neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former general Gadi Eisenkot had won enough seats to form a government. The polls published by Israel’s major TV networks show Netanyahu’s governing bloc either tied or nearly tied with the opposition grouping led by Eisenkot on around 51 seats each, short of the 61 seats needed to form a majority coalition government.

By Wednesday morning, election officials had counted more than half the votes, putting Netanyahu’s bloc ahead at 55 seats, but with further changes expected. Speaking at 3 am local time, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister vowed to assemble a coalition through agreements between his Likud party, far-right factions and Jewish religious parties. “We must put in place a strong government of the right,” Netanyahu told cheering supporters.

“The Jewish and Zionist majority must unite,” he added. Rise of Palestinian parties in Knesset will redraw Israel’s political landscape Read more Eisenkot, speaking to his own supporters in Tel Aviv, said earlier in the evening that “people decided in favour of change” and Netanyahu should have “announced today his retirement from politics”. The election was marked by a record participation by Israeli citizens of Palestinian origin , a discriminated minority that makes up about 20% of the country’s population.

Many in the group have sought a stronger political voice after decades of boycotting polls in the Jewish state. Millions of other Palestinians living under Israeli rule in the occupied West Bank and Gaza cannot vote, leading to accusations of apartheid. Exit polls predicted Palestinian parties could win about 18 seats, up from 10. However, their role in any coalition would be difficult. Netanyahu has said it was “out of the question” to have a government backed by Palestinian parties, while Eisenkot has said Arab-led parties do not meet Zionist criteria to govern.

With more than half of the ballots counted, Israel’s Central Elections Committee reported 27 seats went to Likud and 21 to Eisenkot’s party, Yashar, although that is expected to change significantly as the official count comes in. Israel’s voting system can see seat numbers swing wildly on fractions of percentage points. Tuesday’s election comes as Israel is fighting accusations of genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in the West Bank.

Netanyahu is separately wanted by the international criminal court (ICC) for alleged war crimes. The election was widely seen as a referendum on the 77-year-old leader, and the vote drew 77.7% turnout, the highest since 1999. View image in fullscreen Supporters of Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrate early on 28 October. Photograph: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images While Israeli TV stations’ exit polls suggested support for Netanyahu’s wider religious-national coalition dropped, a deadlock could work in his favour.

A ​stalemate would allow the prime minister to remain in power in a caretaker capacity, while he stymies opposition attempts to form a coalition and even force a snap election. ​This has previously led to back-to-back elections – between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections. Earlier exit polls had Eisenkot winning most seats in the Knesset by a slight margin. Israeli exit polls are often revised after publication and are notoriously imprecise, with the final count often swinging by several seats.

Opposition figures were quick to cast the exit polls as a defeat for Netanyahu, who is entangled in a long-running corruption trial on charges he denies, and has been blamed domestically for a lack of preparedness for the 2023 Hamas attacks. Another opposition figure, and former prime minister, Yair Lapid said: “Netanyahu’s bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse. The public has told them to get out.” Netanyahu and several other parties attempted to keep polling stations open beyond their 10 pm deadline, but it was refused by the Central Elections Committee.

The prime minister had suggested publicly that efforts were being made by the “left and Arabs” to steal the election, a claim rejected by the committee. Entangled in a long-running corruption trial, Netanyahu and his far-right coalition had stoked xenophobic fears and suggested Israel would be vulnerable to a nuclear attack without him. The campaign, febrile even by Israeli standards, included Netanyahu posting a picture of a nuclear explosion devastating Tel Aviv on the eve of the polls opening.

With more than 7 million people eligible to vote, voter turnout was 77.7% – a rise of about 9% on the previous election – with marked increases in the number of serving military members voting. There were also reports of tens of thousands of Israelis living abroad who had arrived to vote in recent days, with many still arriving at Ben Gurion airport to cast their ballots on Tuesday. Since the deadly attack launched by Hamas on Israel’s southern communities on 7 October 2023, Israel has devastated Gaza and killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, occupied new territory in Syria and launched a war with the US against Iran.

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