Technology and Science · updated 1h ago · 3 min read
Climate Impact Lab Projects 451,000 More Heat Deaths From Super El Nino Through February 2027
El Niño could cause about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027. Linked to record global heat, the deaths add to droughts, wildfires, and water shortages.
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6 of 10 outlets skipped it: the study’s method will be published in a peer-reviewed journal..
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451,000 Heat Deaths
Climate Impact Lab projected that as many as 451,000 more heat-related deaths could occur between June and the end of February 2027 due to the effects of El Nino, compared with the number expected in an average year. Climate Impact Lab researchers said they based the projections on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality in 24,378 regions, taking local climate and vulnerability into account. Climate Impact Lab’s report titled "451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Nino" said the number of extremely hot days is likely to rise by 44 percent compared with normal years.
“The study combined seasonal temperature forecasts with localized estimates of how high temperatures affect mortality in more than 24,000 regions worldwide.”
Michael Greenstone, cofounder of CIL and an economist at the University of Chicago, said, "This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months." Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the University of Reading’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science & Department of Meteorology, explained that strong winds from the Indonesia side help transport warm water that leads to a super El Nino.
Where the Risk Hits
The Climate Impact Lab study said the greatest impact is expected in poorer countries, which already face food insecurity and high energy costs, worsened by climate change and the repercussions of the war in Iran. The Climate Impact Lab projected that the Sahel region in Africa would be the most affected, with about 66,800 additional heat-related deaths attributed to El Nino. The Climate Impact Lab projected 19,400 deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, and it projected 19,300 in Indonesia, 15,800 in India, and 13,300 in Brazil.
Abhiyant Tiwari, heat expert at NRDC India who did not participate in the study, warned that the projections should serve as a call to action rather than a reason for alarm, saying, "The true measure of our preparedness is not how many heat alerts we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths." The Climate Impact Lab also said global land temperatures during this El Nino could be about 1.2 degrees Celsius higher, generating 44% more days of extreme heat than in a typical year.
Preparedness and Policy
Climate Impact Lab recommended that emergency response efforts should be directed to high-priority regions to tackle heat-related mortality in the coming months. Climate Impact Lab’s Adaptation Inventory said governments should implement measures including issuing heat warnings, increasing the number of staff at medical facilities during the hottest periods, establishing cooling centres where people can shelter, and implementing protections for outdoor workers. Michael Greenstone said the report’s warning is meant to guide action, and the report said it would be published in a peer-reviewed journal.
The Climate Impact Lab also urged anticipatory financing, which would allow governments to mobilize resources before the peak of dangerous heat is reached. Tamma Carleton, faculty head of research for the Climate Impact Lab and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said, "Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year," while warning that "20 years from now" the goal is to avoid a constant state of emergency.