South America06 August, 20263 min read
Colombian Authorities Discover Explosives on Bus Targeting President-Elect Abelardo De la Espriella
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Authorities uncovered a bus rigged with explosives targeting president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella. Ahead of August 7 inauguration in Cali.
Inauguration under threat
Colombian president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is expected to be sworn in on August 7 in Cali, as outgoing President Gustavo Petro continues to claim fraud in De la Espriella’s razor-thin victory margin against leftist candidate Iván Cepeda. Ahead of the ceremony, Colombian authorities announced they discovered a bus loaded with explosives suspected of targeting De la Espriella, with no passengers on board and the vehicle destroyed in a controlled explosion. ACLED said the inauguration on 7 August is likely to trigger demonstrations from Day 1, with De la Espriella promising to crack down on protesters and threatening to use force against those who violate the law.
The risk of unrest is tied to the 2021 turmoil under Iván Duque, when security forces harshly repressed anti-government protests and the crackdown led to the deaths of almost 90 people, more than half in Cali. In the same pre-inauguration period, El Mundo reported that authorities had information about "tens of tons of explosives" in Cali and other towns in Valle del Cauca, and said police intercepted a bus loaded with 420 kilos of explosives on the Pan-American Highway near Cali.
Voices and competing narratives
Petro has warned that De la Espriella will not be able to finish his mandate due to popular pressure, while Cepeda said he would organize a series of protests on inauguration day in Bogotá, Barranquilla, and Cali. ACLED reported that De la Espriella defined the demonstrations invoked by Cepeda as “urban terrorism” and threatened to use force against those who violate the law, even as both Petro and Cepeda called for gatherings to be peaceful. In a separate thread of coverage, i24NEWS said the outgoing Colombian Minister of Defense had warned local media about a terrorist threat around the ceremony, and that initial investigation elements point suspicion toward individuals linked to the FARC.
El Mundo said military intelligence points to the Jaime Martínez Front of the FARC planning to attack police and Army installations during the inauguration to disrupt it. The political stakes are also reflected in how opposition groups frame legitimacy, with El Mundo describing that neither the parliamentary group led by Iván Cepeda nor other legislators supporting them, from the Green Party, will participate in any government-change events.
What’s at risk next
ACLED warned that hardened stances by both the incoming and outgoing governments risk reopening the wounds of the 2021 protests, and said the risk extends beyond inauguration day. It said the package of 90 decrees De la Espriella plans to introduce in his first 100 days in office risks sparking further unrest, especially if he pushes to pass reforms that halt or even undo Petro’s social reforms and peace efforts. The same ACLED analysis said demonstrations around the inauguration in Cali are particularly important to watch, and that renewed repression of a reinstated ESMAD would expose Bogotá and departments where Cepeda obtained more votes, including Cauca and Valle del Cauca.
AS/COA Online reported that De la Espriella will be inaugurated in Cali and that he will join Trump’s regional security bloc known as the Shield of the Americas on his first day in office, with operations proposed to run out of Medellín. AS/COA Online also said De la Espriella plans to restore Colombia’s Israeli diplomatic and economic relations, lift visa requirements, and move the Colombian embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, while El Mundo described that the White House and the State Department chose to send a broad delegation led by the next Attorney General, Todd Blanche.