Climateupdated 1h ago2 min read
Hurricane Simon Strengthens Into Category 4 as NHC Warns of Rapid Intensification
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Hurricane Simon intensified to Category 4 with sustained winds around 150 mph. Landfall anticipated on Mexico's Pacific coast this weekend, near Jalisco or Puerto Vallarta.
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Simon nears Mexico as Cat 4
Hurricane Simon strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane in the Pacific and approached the coasts of western Mexico as the United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned of rapid intensification. The NHC said Simon was 185 km from the port of Manzanillo with winds of 240 km/h, and the NHC warned that "Further rapid strengthening is expected in the coming day or so." The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) said Simon’s bands were bringing torrential rains to regions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacán, along with heavy rainfall in the western and southern parts of the country, plus strong winds and high surf.
The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves, the NHC stated. The BBC reported that the NHC said one of Simon’s biggest dangers was storm surge, and the NHC stated, "The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."
Warnings, closures, and shelter
The National Civil Protection Coordination (CNPC) urged people in risk areas to take precautions, follow local authorities’ guidance, and stay informed through official channels, while the CNPC said authorities at all three levels of government were maintaining population aid protocols on the ground. Authorities in the states of Michoacán, Jalisco, Colima, and Nayarit suspended nonessential activities starting at 4:00 p.m. local time on Saturday. Laura Velázquez told coastal populations from Puerto Vallarta in Jalisco to Manzanillo in Colima to heed official advisories, saying, "We ask you to shelter in your homes and in your temporary shelters during the hurricane’s passage."
The BBC also reported that the government of Claudia Sheinbaum ordered the deployment of naval, army, and National Guard personnel and opened shelters for people with vulnerable housing. The AccuWeather forecast warned that rainfall totals of 1-2 inches were forecast across a broad area extending from western Oaxaca northward through Chihuahua and into portions of the southwestern United States, while 12-18 inches was expected in parts of southwestern Mexico.
Cat bond on watch
Mexico’s catastrophe bond risk financing came into focus as Hurricane Simon remained a strong Category 4 storm, with Artemis.bm saying the storm’s path could bring it into parametric trigger zones tied to the $175 million IBRD CAR Mexico 2024 (Pacific) catastrophe bond. "932mb could activate a 25% payout of the cat bond principal," and "915mb or lower would be required for it to reach 50%." It was still highly uncertain whether a payout could come due, because the pressure at the time Simon crosses into the parametric boxes, or while in the zones, is what matters.
The BBC described the NHC’s forecast that Simon would approach the central-west coast of Mexico as a major hurricane tonight or in the early hours of Sunday, and the NHC said the surge would bring large and destructive waves. The AccuWeather forecast warned that strong onshore winds were forecast to produce a storm surge of 10-15 feet along portions of the Jalisco coastline, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 15 feet.