USA13 August, 20263 min read
James Talarico Surges Ahead of Ken Paxton on Kalshi and Polymarket in Texas Senate Race
This article is an automated aggregation of coverage from news outlets. Our editorials offer in-depth analysis curated by the NewsCord team.
Talarico leads Paxton in Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets (56%–44%). Polls show a close Texas Senate race, Paxton and Talarico in a dead heat.
5 outlets told this the same way.
Prediction Markets Shift
Democrat James Talarico surged ahead of Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with Talarico priced at roughly a 56 percent chance of winning compared with 44 percent for Paxton on Kalshi.
On Polymarket, Talarico had a 52 percent chance compared to Paxton's 48 percent, and the flip for Talarico occurred roughly as Monday began, with the initial tilt occurring around 2:30 p.m. Tuesday.
Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek via email that "This would be a stunning flip--clearly the biggest in the midterms" and said it could be part of a broader wave of support for Democrats.
D. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek via email that "The sincere investors in political futures markets" understand moderate candidates usually outperform fringe candidates in high-turnout contests.
The race is being framed against Texas’s long Republican dominance, with Newsweek noting that President Donald Trump won the state in the 2024 presidential election by double digits and that Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King.
Polls Show Dead Heat
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey found Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton polling at 47 percent support and state Rep. James Talarico polling at 46 percent among likely Texas voters, with 5 percent undecided.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll surveyed a sample of 1,000 likely Texas voters from Aug. 9-10 with a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points, and The Hill described the race as neck in neck less than three months out from the midterm election.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz warned last month that the Democratic candidate has a "real chance" to beat Paxton this November, saying, "I think this is a real race. I think it’s going to be close," to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
CNN reported that Paxton is trying to tamp down growing Republican concerns about his Senate campaign, with Cruz saying the race "could be decided by a point or two," and CNN quoting Michael Berry telling Paxton, "I know there is a lot of frustration. I hear it," about the path to victory and fundraising.
CNN also reported that Paxton said in a Fox News interview Sunday, "We need help now," as he suggested his campaign was trying to raise enough money so it could start airing TV ads next month.
Endorsements and Stakes
As the general election approaches, USA Today reported that Paxton has secured endorsements from 18 Republican members of Congress and former President Donald Trump, while Paxton’s announcement drew criticism from Talarico’s campaign over impeachment-related charges in the Texas House.
USA Today quoted Paxton saying, "I’m honored to have the support of these outstanding members of Congress, and I look forward to fighting alongside them to deliver results for the people of Texas," and added that Republicans are coalescing around Paxton as polling remains tight.
El Paso Times reported that Paxton announced 18 endorsements from the Texas Republican congressional delegation on Wednesday, Aug. 12, and it listed U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington of Lubbock and U.S. Rep. August Pfluger of San Angelo among those backing him.
CNN said Texas Republicans are openly worried about losing a statewide race for the first time in three decades, and it described the general election as one that could determine control of the US Senate.
CNN also reported that Talarico said at a rally in Arlington, "We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis," blaming "billionaires buying politicians like Ken Paxton," as both campaigns seek to consolidate support ahead of the Nov. 3 election to replace U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.