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Midterms: turnout anxiety
Republican strategists and pollsters are raising alarms about a “listless and demotivated base” ahead of November’s 2026 midterm elections, with Americans for Prosperity Action warning that “About 1 in 5 reliable Republican base voters are at risk this November.”
The Washington Post reports that the problem is reaching “deep into Republicans’ loyal base,” and it cites polling and door-knocking showing voters in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Michigan worried about inflation and the economy.
In Iowa, AFP Action door-knocking in the Des Moines suburb of Urbandale found voters critical of the war in Iran and high inflation, and three-time Trump voter Lance Sulentic of rural Harrison County said the past three presidential elections were “the worst three mistakes I’ve ever made in my life.”
Sulentic, a 56-year-old retired insurance agent, said, “We voted for Trump, and he did the opposite of what he said he was going to do,” as he described promises about gas prices, food costs, energy prices, rebate checks, and new wars.
Polling and redistricting
With 100 days until the midterms and Nov. 3 as the target date, USA TODAY says Democrats lead in polling while Republicans bank on redistricting wins and the rural bias in the Senate.
USA TODAY points to an AJuly 23 Emerson poll showing an 11-percentage-point lead by Democrats on the generic ballot—53% compared with 42%—and it adds that a Washington Post-Ipsos poll found a three-percentage-point lead of 48% Democrat vs. 45% for Republicans if the House race were held today.
Fox News frames the contest as a 100-day sprint with Republicans holding narrow majorities in Congress, including a 218-212 edge in the House and a 53-47 advantage in the Senate with two independents who caucus with Democrats.
In a statement to Fox News, Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Joe Gruters said, “We are in a prime position to win it in November,” while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spokesperson Nebeyatt Betre argued, “Voters are exhausted by all the bad news vulnerable House Republicans have created.”
What’s at stake
The stakes for both parties are tied to control of Congress, with Fox News saying Democrats need a net gain of just six House seats to reclaim the speaker’s gavel and four Senate seats to win back the upper chamber.
USA TODAY similarly describes Republicans’ uphill challenge as Democrats hold leads in polls but face a “rural bias in the Senate” and the impact of redistricting wins that could benefit Republicans ahead of the midterms.
In the Senate, USA TODAY says the Republican majority sits at 53 over 45 Democrats and two independents who tend to caucus with the minority, and it lists Maine as a race where incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins will take on Democrat Troy Jackson.
Fox News adds that Republicans are looking to hold on to seats in Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine, while Democrats hope to capitalize on “the historic, economic, foreign policy and anti-incumbent mood among voters.”
