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Marie’s hurricane upgrade
Tropical Storm Marie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday as it moves northwest off the Mexican coast, while forecasters said the chances of it directly striking Southern California remain “very low.”
“The chances of Marie directly hitting Southern California as a hurricane or tropical storm remain “very low””
MyNewsLA reported that the storm was located Tuesday near 15 degrees north latitude and 109 degrees west longitude, and that the National Hurricane Center forecast it to reach hurricane strength Wednesday while continuing northwest through the holiday weekend.
The National Weather Service said only a few computer-model projections showed a track close to the region, and it warned that “The chances of Marie directly hitting Southern California as a hurricane or tropical storm remain VERY LOW.”
Even with a low direct-hit risk, MyNewsLA said moisture from Marie was expected to be drawn into Southern California during the Labor Day weekend, with a 50% to 60% chance of widespread light rainfall of 0.10 to 0.50 inches Sunday through Tuesday.
MyNewsLA also said there is a 10% to 15% chance of moderate to strong easterly winds developing ahead of the rain, potentially creating fire-weather concerns.
Models diverge, impacts persist
As Marie formed early Tuesday morning in the eastern Pacific just offshore of Mexico, the Sacramento Bee said an ensemble weather model diverges after Saturday for where Marie will track, with a minority of members bringing the storm to the California coast.
The Sacramento Bee reported that as of Tuesday afternoon Marie had maximum wind speeds of 60 mph and was forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane later this week according to the National Hurricane Center.
SFGATE quoted University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain saying, “No, a hurricane is almost certainly not going to make landfall in Southern California,” while adding that it was “increasingly plausible that a tropical system of some magnitude will have at least indirect effects in Southern California for several days later this week.”
SFGATE also said forecasters from the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles agreed that depending on the track there was a “very small chance of more than 2 inches of rain in Southern California,” while the more likely scenario was “some light to moderate rain to impact the holiday weekend.”
Even if the storm stays offshore, the Weather Channel said high surf, coastal flooding, and perhaps some thundershowers in the Los Angeles Basin were possible, and it described a split between models that keep Marie far from land and models that curl it north toward Southern California early next week.
What to watch next
Local forecasts tied to the storm’s track emphasized coastal hazards, with MyNewsLA saying evening high tides are expected to reach 6.5 to 6.8 feet Sunday and about 7 feet Monday, increasing the possibility of coastal flooding in low-lying areas and beach erosion.
“moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion could occur”
MyNewsLA warned that if peak surf coincides with high tide, “moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion could occur,” and it said high surf advisories for south-facing beaches were most likely Sunday through Monday night along with very strong rip currents.
NBC 7 San Diego reported that by Sunday Marie was expected to be about 775 miles southwest of San Diego, and it said the National Weather Service expected a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms from Saturday into next Monday.
NBC 7 San Diego also said associated tropical swells were roughly forecast to arrive Saturday or Sunday, coinciding with high tides of 6.2 to 6.5 feet, while the NWS said it was “still way too early to discuss expected rainfall totals.”
The CBS News forecast framed the same uncertainty with meteorologist Paul Deanno saying, “Will [Marie] make landfall in Southern California? Very likely not,” while adding, “Will there be impacts in Southern California? Very likely yes,” pointing to abnormally high humidity, rough surf, and tropical rain starting Saturday.