USA11 September, 20263 min read
Trump Administration Proposes Excluding Noncitizens From 2030 U.S. Census, Reshaping Voting Maps
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Proposal would exclude noncitizens from the 2030 census population count. Counting changes could reshape congressional representation and federal funding allocations.
2030 Census Overhaul
The Trump administration proposed major changes to the U.S. census for the upcoming national count in 2030, with the U.S. Department of Commerce seeking to exclude people who do not possess American citizenship or a permanent resident permit.
“The proposal is open to public comment for 30 days.”
Al Jazeera reported that under the proposal, U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents would be counted, while other foreign nationals—including people with temporary legal status and immigrants without documentation—would be excluded.
The proposal also suggests eliminating certain questions on race and ethnicity from the questionnaire, citing “substantial doubts about the meaning, significance, and impact” of such categories.
NPR said the plan would reshape voting maps by changing the population numbers used to determine each state's share of representatives in Congress and votes in the Electoral College, redraw maps of voting districts, and distribute federal funding for public services.
Reuters reported that the proposed rule changes would exclude even more immigrants from the census, such as those in the U.S. on a temporary lawful basis, and that the proposal is open to public comment for 30 days.
Critics Warn of Data
Meeta Anand, senior director of the census and data equity program at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, warned that the effort could have “earth-shattering” effects by leaving cities and states with relatively high immigrant populations with insufficient federal aid and political representation. Anand also told USA TODAY that the proposal “excludes, for instance, visa holders, H1B visa holders, it excludes refugees, it excludes asylees, it excludes people with temporary protective status and it excludes undocumented immigrants,” framing those groups as integrated into society. NBC News reported that demography experts and civil rights advocates warn the changes could warp the data used for drawing congressional and state legislative districts, enforcing anti-discrimination law and allocating federal funds for public services.
Reuters quoted William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, saying the proposal goes beyond changing how the census is conducted and that “The administration is trying to change the idea of who is American.” Frey warned that even if the proposal fails, its chilling effect could persist, telling Al Jazeera, “That’s the scary part.”
Funding and Representation
The census proposal’s stakes include congressional representation and federal funding, because population counts determine seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the allocation of federal resources.
Al Jazeera reported that population counts have wide-ranging purposes, determining the allocation of everything from government resources to seats in the House of Representatives, and it said the Census Bureau reported census data was used to distribute more than $2.8 trillion in federal funding in fiscal year 2021.
NBC News said the proposed rule changes could significantly change how much political representation and federal funding each state receives, and it noted the bureau will conduct the next full census in 2030.
USA TODAY reported that the Commerce Department is seeking comment on the proposals for 30 days after publication, scheduled for Sept. 10, and that the Supreme Court blocked the addition of a citizenship question during President Donald Trump's first term.
Reuters added that the Justice Department warned on September 2 that states could lose billions of dollars in welfare funding if they do not report all immigrants whom state agencies know to be in the country without documentation, tying the proposal to immediate financial risk.