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Pause, new fronts
The United States did not announce new strikes against Iran on Friday night for the first time in two weeks, even as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said they targeted Saudi sites on the Red Sea coast Saturday, a day after Saudi Arabia launched strikes in retaliation for the rebel group’s attacks on commercial vessels.
CNN reported that an Iranian military official dismissed comments from US President Donald Trump that Tehran is “getting more serious” about negotiations, while Trump also claimed Tehran would “love to make a deal.”
CNN said an Omani diplomatic delegation arrived in Tehran on Friday and that the two parties discussed efforts to “establish appropriate mechanisms for managing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).
The same CNN update tied the shifting pressure to shipping and energy flows, saying renewed fighting dramatically slowed traffic through the strait and cutting off its pre-war supply of 20 million barrels of oil a day.
CNN also reported that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve reached its lowest level since 1983, as Brent crude fell 4% to $96.78 and US crude dropped 3% to $89.31 a barrel.
Skepticism and diplomacy
As President Trump threatened a major escalation in Iran, The Hill quoted Sina Azodi, director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, saying, “I don’t think it will change Iran’s calculation in any way.”
The Hill also reported that Trump held a Friday afternoon meeting at the White House with his national security team to discuss military options against Iran, and Trump told reporters on Friday, “We’re talking to them. So, you know, maybe there won’t be a tipping point, and maybe there will.”
The AP described how the U.S. expanded its targets over two weeks, striking bridges and infrastructure in the south and “striking deeper into the center of Iran and the outskirts of its capital, Tehran.”
AP said the Iranian Health Ministry put the death toll at 3,434 people killed since the war began, including 55 during the recent escalation, while the U.S. said its barrages were aimed at degrading Iran’s ability to threaten vessels in the strait.
The Guardian added that Trump threatened “major military punishment” for Tehran and its Houthi allies in Yemen for extending the war to a second shipping chokepoint at the entrance to the Red Sea.
What comes next
The AP said the renewed U.S. aerial campaign temporarily disrupted transportation and communications within Iran and damaged water infrastructure used by thousands of people, while Iran intensified strikes on ships in the strait and on Gulf countries housing U.S. bases.
“China may have influenced this pause”
AP reported that a strike on July 18 hit a water desalination plant in Jask, destroying the pumping stations and affecting water supply to 10,000 residents nearby, according to Iranian officials.
In parallel, The Guardian reported that Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi insisted the problem with advancing peace talks was “the American approach,” and that “Preserving Iran’s interests in the strait of Hormuz is among our principles.”
The Hill said the U.S. and U.K. officials are planning a major conference next week to discuss protecting ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with a White House official telling The Hill that the meeting is intended to address ship safety.
CNN’s live update framed the immediate risk as a widening conflict, noting that the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have targeted commercial vessels on the Red Sea coast and that the Houthis have effectively blocked the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which about 5 million barrels of Saudi oil flow each day.
