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NATO test scenario
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments say Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, according to three sources familiar with the material.
“could try to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years”
The assessments outline scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale incursion intended to challenge NATO’s unity and commitment to Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, without necessarily triggering a response from the entire alliance.
The Wall Street Journal reported the assessments, and one of the sources said Putin is most likely to escalate by targeting the Baltics or Poland.
U.S. and NATO officials also believe Putin may choose to escalate against NATO if he fails to find a “way around” ending the war in Ukraine, with the window for such action extending from now into the coming years.
Officials and Germany
NATO military spokesperson Martin O’Donnell declined to comment on classified intelligence assessments but said NATO is “always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios,” while adding that “NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate.”
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt told reporters on Wednesday that “Drone sightings, drone threats including in a hybrid context, are something we know from the past,” and he said “That a drone armed with explosives is at an airport is a new threat scenario.”
The assessments also referenced incidents involving violations of NATO airspace, including a drone carrying explosives striking a high-rise building in Romania in May and Russian forces attacking a nearby Ukrainian port, injuring several people.
CNN reported that the U.S. assessed an explosive-laden drone discovered at an airport in Germany overnight on Wednesday belonged to a Russian intelligence service, and it said the drone was discovered by an airport staff member in a secure area of cargo flight operations.
Stocks, casualties, and risk
The intelligence assessments come as the United States continues to assess dwindling weapons and ammunition stocks, with some air defense systems and munitions used in operations and supplies declining, according to the reporting.
“nearly 80% of its THAAD missile interceptors — a key missile defense system — have been exhausted”
CNN said nearly 80% of its THAAD missile interceptors have been exhausted in the war compared to pre-war levels, and it reported roughly half of its Patriot interceptors have also been exhausted.
In one night of attacks this week, Russian ballistic and anti-ship missiles killed at least 17 people and wounded dozens more, and CNN reported none of the missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian defenses.
The reporting also tied the planning of senior commanders for future conflicts to these constraints, including a potential escalation against NATO or a possible confrontation with China in the Pacific, while Donald Trump said on Truth Social late Thursday night, “The U.S. has massive amounts of ‘munitions,’ especially of certain types.”
